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We are watching a gale-force Low east of the Bahamas that has acquired slight tropical characteristics #flhurricane.com
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General Discussion >> 2017 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2017
      #97574 - Sun Jan 01 2017 12:34 AM

About a month ago it was difficult to identify a suitable analog year for the 2017 tropical Atlantic activity and it still is - no real firm indicators one way or another, however 1984 (13/5/1) is starting to emerge as a possible analog year. After starting with a weak La Nina, ENSO Neutral conditions are forecast to exist through most of 2017 in the tropical east Pacific. I'll start with 13/5/1 for 2017 and adust the numbers as necessary when the start of the season gets closer. Those numbers would suggest that 2017 would be an above normal season in the Atlantic basin - but its early. The current ridging pattern in the subtropical Atlantic is keeping SSTs on the warm side this winter (so far). 1984 did feature some late season storms and if the pattern holds, 2017 might do the same.

Once again we will keep this thread open until the season starts on June 1st and you can input your own guesstimates on the 2017 numbers until then - and revise them as often as you wish. As a group, CFHC did a fantastic job last year on the seasonal totals - best ever.
Cheers,
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97576 - Fri Jan 06 2017 05:51 AM

Another analog year that is emerging is 1996 (13/9/6) so I'll adjust my outlook to 13/7/3.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 898
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97592 - Sun Mar 05 2017 09:35 AM

Not making prediction yet. But I am intrigued by the weather on the west coast this year and a similarity with the pattern there in 1968-69. I know 1969 brought 13 storms and Camielle. It seems that the tropical Atlantic this year would be supporting higher than normal sea temps and a more robust tropical high pressure ridge which would lead to a more vigorous season. Waiting with interest for the May predictions by the usual entities.

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doug


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SouthGAwx
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: Georgia
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #97597 - Thu Mar 16 2017 01:51 PM

12/6/3

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 898
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97598 - Tue Mar 21 2017 10:55 AM

11/7/4

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doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 311
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97599 - Fri Mar 24 2017 12:31 PM

Not sure what this will add but here is the early outlook from Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell.
Is the Current US Climate Cycle Thwarting Major Hurricane Hits

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2016 Season Prediction: 12/6/2


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 385
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Outlook for 2017 [Re: doug]
      #97600 - Sun Mar 26 2017 02:17 PM

I don't mean to be "debbie downer" but I pay no attention to this sort of stuff. I will say the weather pattern that brought excess rainfall to California this winter season was interesting though and one I hope those folks out there had the good sense to fill every reservoir and water "bank" up to the brim. I suppose some creative engineers could level the Rocky Mountains but time will eventually do that like nature did on the Appalachians; it too one day will be level but that's neither here nor there today. I just think all these predictions amount to the weather version of news and sports talk on radio; it never is what we say it "will" be. I have more faith in the 384 hour GFS model than hurricane predictions in late March; why, it's 16 days out, not a gazillion! There's no way to know except to say climate change is real and not fake news. I don't wish this on anybody living on the coast, but what does it take for folks to wake up and realize what's happening to this planet is no joke, a "Cat 6" hurricane to come calling at the door? You folks who are die hard federalists; I look forward to the day a Trump administration (assuming it makes it four years) says to that community and state; sorry, no EPA and no FEMA; you're SOL! I hope it doesn't take a good old fashion pissed off mother nature made natural disaster to wake folks up; that will be bad. There's no meteorological reason to suggest more hurricanes; stronger yes, but more, no. There are simply too many variables and of course, my favorite; the upper level winds aloft which seem to have more to do with the numbers than anything else. There also seems to be a persistent or semi-permanent Mid-Atlantic upper low and an Eastern US/Coast longwave trough that deters land falling systems. And let's not forget the Sahara Desert and it's effects across the Atlantic basin. I don't buy that a stronger upper level ridge will in turn make it easier for hurricanes to develop; there are just too many variables at any one given time; it too doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice that the upper level jet stream(s) are increasingly staying more north with each passing winter. I suspect somewhere in the near distant future you might see the Atlantic hurricane season either start sooner or end later, but predicting how many is not my cup of tea. No day can be that slow but then again I just wrote this, but I'm about to get up, get dressed and take my gal to an open caption movie at the theater. Last day of spring break for we college folks; a bummer too, it went by way too fast, but I did get to that complete well pump and plumbing refit this week! Y'all be good. Yes, old folks do attend full-time college....Earth and Space Science! Plan on teaching at age 60....you can't beat 3 months off in the summer and a month off at Christmas and Monday holidays! I won't retire until I'm dead!!! And who wrote that little gem on the Facebook page "slight tropical characteristics". Newsflash; they all do; it sort of boils down to what degree. Bye!

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Sun Mar 26 2017 02:20 PM)


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