7AM EDT Update 31 July 2017
During the past few hours deep convection has persisted and become a little better organized over the well-defined, formerly non-tropical low pressure center being tracked as Invest 98L, and the system is now a Tropical Depression, the sixth tropical cyclone of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Although not presently forecast to become stronger than a TD (given the shear and nearby dry air), smaller systems can have surprisingly large and unexpected changes in intensity, up or down, and a modest Tropical Storm into landfall is not out of the question. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds, regardless.
Tropical Storm Warnings up from Anclote River (just south of New Port Richie) to Bonita Beach Florida
2PM EDT Update 30 July 2017
The area in the northeast Gulf is now being tracked as Invest 98L, chances for development are up to 30% in the next 5 days and 20% in the next 48 hours. It continues to bring rain to Central and Northern Florida.
A stalled out frontal system over the northeast gulf of Mexico has formed a surface low south-southwest of Panama City, FL and bringing rain to parts of Central and Northern Florida. Although the system isn't likely to develop into anything tropical in the near term, the rainfall and developing low will likely make for a nasty day or two in those areas. Because of the close proximity, We'll be watching the rather vigorous surface low to see if anything comes of it after Florida, right now there's a 10% chance this low develops within the next 48 hours and 20% over the next few days.
Parts of the area in Florida may have some rough weather associated with the front and low, but not much more than a typical afternoon storm (just longer duration)
Additionally the area in the central Atlantic has a 20% for development.
The gulf system has not been tagged as an invest yet.
Emily (Northeast Gulf of Mexico) Event Related Links
A few buoy reports of 40MPH winds west of Tampa, the low seems to be drifting southeast currently, probably would drift into the W. Central Florida coast. Watch this one closely, these frontal lows are prime for surprises.
Shows the water levels at Ft. Myers, currently running about a foot above normal. Rain will likely be the story with this system as it moves over central Florida. Thankfully the system doesn't have much more time over water or the surge could be a lot worse.
In the image above, times are stamped in CDT.
Add an hour for Florida.
How to read:
This is a snapshot of both velocity (top) and precipitation (bottom). At the time of this scan there was a wide area within Emily's core of 70+ MPH winds only 1,200 to 2,000 feet above the surface, with max returns in the 80s to 90s. Given the heavy precipitation, a reduction ratio to 80% or so, at least in gusts, was likely occurring, as well as possible brief tornadoes. Once inland, this core of maximum winds dropped back down to modest tropical storm levels.
The center isn't well defined right now but its' just east of Tampa and south of Lakeland, most of the convection easies to spot on the Tampa radar, most of the convection ran off, although some rain over Orlando to the east and west is trying to wrap in toward it. Another center may form over the Atlantic, most of the frontal convection and rain is to the south and east.
The saved florida radar recording ( http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?257 ) shows most of the rain south and east of the center, which is difficult to spot until near the end of the loop. The then convection races ahead toward Sebring, FL, leaving the center behind.
What is spinning SE of Sebring, FL; that's SE of where Emily is suppose to be. I also have not noted an ENE movement on radar, satellite and surface observations support what radar and satellite are indicating. What I don't know is, is that Emily or an MCV or a 2nd LLC
Just as a late report on Emily in my area....7 inches of rain in my 'non-official' gauge in south Plant City on Monday night....water everywhere! Little to no wind damage but potential river flooding later in the week.
-------------------- If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3
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