Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 71 (Nate) , Major: 89 (Maria) Florida - Any: 99 (Irma) Major: 99 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2017 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight
      #97758 - Sun Jul 30 2017 11:11 AM

7AM EDT Update 31 July 2017
During the past few hours deep convection has persisted and become a little better organized over the well-defined, formerly non-tropical low pressure center being tracked as Invest 98L, and the system is now a Tropical Depression, the sixth tropical cyclone of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Although not presently forecast to become stronger than a TD (given the shear and nearby dry air), smaller systems can have surprisingly large and unexpected changes in intensity, up or down, and a modest Tropical Storm into landfall is not out of the question. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds, regardless.
-Ciel


Tropical Storm Warnings up from Anclote River (just south of New Port Richie) to Bonita Beach Florida

2PM EDT Update 30 July 2017
The area in the northeast Gulf is now being tracked as Invest 98L, chances for development are up to 30% in the next 5 days and 20% in the next 48 hours. It continues to bring rain to Central and Northern Florida.

Original Update

A stalled out frontal system over the northeast gulf of Mexico has formed a surface low south-southwest of Panama City, FL and bringing rain to parts of Central and Northern Florida. Although the system isn't likely to develop into anything tropical in the near term, the rainfall and developing low will likely make for a nasty day or two in those areas. Because of the close proximity, We'll be watching the rather vigorous surface low to see if anything comes of it after Florida, right now there's a 10% chance this low develops within the next 48 hours and 20% over the next few days.



Parts of the area in Florida may have some rough weather associated with the front and low, but not much more than a typical afternoon storm (just longer duration)

Additionally the area in the central Atlantic has a 20% for development.

The gulf system has not been tagged as an invest yet.



Emily (Northeast Gulf of Mexico) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Emily


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Emily (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Emily (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Emily

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Emily
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Emily -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Radar Recording for 98L approach



Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jul 31 2017 12:57 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Northeast Gulf Surface Low Pressure (98L) Approaching Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #97759 - Sun Jul 30 2017 02:25 PM

Radar recording up for 98L http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?257

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Northeast Gulf Surface Low Pressure (98L) Approaching Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #97760 - Sun Jul 30 2017 02:38 PM

A few buoy reports of 40MPH winds west of Tampa, the low seems to be drifting southeast currently, probably would drift into the W. Central Florida coast. Watch this one closely, these frontal lows are prime for surprises.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Northeast Gulf Surface Low Pressure (98L) Approaching Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #97765 - Mon Jul 31 2017 09:51 AM

Ft. Myers/Venice will likely be close to where the landfall point of Emily is.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8725520

Shows the water levels at Ft. Myers, currently running about a foot above normal. Rain will likely be the story with this system as it moves over central Florida. Thankfully the system doesn't have much more time over water or the surge could be a lot worse.

Tampa: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8726607



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight [Re: MikeC]
      #97766 - Mon Jul 31 2017 11:14 AM


In the image above, times are stamped in CDT.
Add an hour for Florida.

How to read:

This is a snapshot of both velocity (top) and precipitation (bottom). At the time of this scan there was a wide area within Emily's core of 70+ MPH winds only 1,200 to 2,000 feet above the surface, with max returns in the 80s to 90s. Given the heavy precipitation, a reduction ratio to 80% or so, at least in gusts, was likely occurring, as well as possible brief tornadoes. Once inland, this core of maximum winds dropped back down to modest tropical storm levels.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight [Re: cieldumort]
      #97769 - Mon Jul 31 2017 03:54 PM

The center isn't well defined right now but its' just east of Tampa and south of Lakeland, most of the convection easies to spot on the Tampa radar, most of the convection ran off, although some rain over Orlando to the east and west is trying to wrap in toward it. Another center may form over the Atlantic, most of the frontal convection and rain is to the south and east.

The saved florida radar recording ( http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?257 ) shows most of the rain south and east of the center, which is difficult to spot until near the end of the loop. The then convection races ahead toward Sebring, FL, leaving the center behind.

Emily will likely be downgraded very shortly.







Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight [Re: MikeC]
      #97771 - Mon Jul 31 2017 08:20 PM

Initial Local Storm Damage Reports from Tampa Bay NWS

0430 AM TROPICAL STORM 4 SE FORT MYERS BEACH 26.42N 81.90W
07/31/2017 LEE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

A SECTION OF ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF ONE BUILDING AND LANDED
ON ANOTHER AT THE OUTRIGGER BEACH RESORT IN FORT MYERS
BEACH. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.


1053 AM TROPICAL STORM 5 ESE FORT DESOTO PARK 27.60N 82.65W
07/31/2017 GMZ830 FL MESONET

WXFLOW SITE XSKY ON THE SKYWAY FISHING PIER REPORTED
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUST OF 57 MPH. AT THE TIME CARS WERE
SHOWN STOPPED ON THE BRIDGE AND UNABLE TO MOVE.

1054 AM TROPICAL STORM 5 S BRADENTON 27.42N 82.58W
07/31/2017 MANATEE FL PUBLIC

MOBILE HOME ROOF DESTROYED IN THE TRAILER ESTATE PARK AND
REC

Initial Local Storm Damage Report from Miami NWS

0112 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW EAST NAPLES 26.17N 81.76W
07/31/2017 COLLIER FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF DAMAGE AT A CONSTRUCTION SITE ON PROGRESS AVE.
DEBRIS FROM THE ROOF ALSO DID DAMAGE TO A PICKUP TRUCK.
NAPLES AIRPORT REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 30MPH IN PREVIOUS
METAR. NO INJURIES REPORTED.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight [Re: cieldumort]
      #97772 - Mon Jul 31 2017 10:02 PM

What is spinning SE of Sebring, FL; that's SE of where Emily is suppose to be. I also have not noted an ENE movement on radar, satellite and surface observations support what radar and satellite are indicating. What I don't know is, is that Emily or an MCV or a 2nd LLC

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight [Re: berrywr]
      #97781 - Wed Aug 02 2017 03:08 PM

System currently in Gulf bringing a lot of rain to central/north florida.




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight [Re: MikeC]
      #97782 - Wed Aug 02 2017 04:22 PM

42mph gust at the CFHC Cocoa weather station

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLCOCOA37#history


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Emily to Cross Florida Today and Tonight [Re: MikeC]
      #97783 - Wed Aug 02 2017 04:36 PM

Just as a late report on Emily in my area....7 inches of rain in my 'non-official' gauge in south Plant City on Monday night....water everywhere! Little to no wind damage but potential river flooding later in the week.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 11 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 4566

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center