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#Harvey and #92L both struggling against higher shear and drier air, but environment may improve for them next week #flhurricane.com
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
TS HARVEY Lounge
      #97845 - Sun Aug 13 2017 02:06 AM



A vigorous tropical wave that has emerged off the coast of western Africa is attempting to merge with an active Monsoon Trof, and is poised to become a strong tropical low or tropical cyclone while tracking west to west-northwest at a fairly low latitude.

This feature has the backing of a wide array of TC genesis models, which is not surprising given its vigor, and the favorable environment it is in, and will likely continue to be in for the better part of its voyage west.

This wave has the potential to become a serious hurricane and should be monitored closely.

While not yet Invest tagged at the time of this entry, it will likely be assigned 90L or 91L within a few days, if not sooner. (Edit: This wave has been tagged as of 8AM Aug 13, 91L. Second edit: the original wave pictured above in the far eastern Atlantic has been reassigned 92L, and the westerner-most Low center assigned 91L.).

This is where to place best guesses on this wave's development potential. The sharing of medium to long range model output is also encouraged here.

At 10:30AM Aug 17 Invest 91L has become PTC NINE and the title has been updated. And at 5PM EDT Aug 17 NINE recon has found PTC9 is now a tropical storm, Harvey.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 17 2017 04:51 PM)


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vpbob21
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Re: E Atlantic Wave 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97848 - Mon Aug 14 2017 01:06 AM

The 00Z cycle of model runs seem to be trending weaker (although we haven't yet heard from the Euro). The CMC does very little with it (although it really likes the wave behind it) and the 00Z GFS is considerably weaker.

One thing that's a bit concerning is that the pattern in about a week should feature much more ridging in the western Atlantic than we have now with Gert so whatever kind of a system we have when it reaches 60-65W should have a chance to get much further west. Next couple days of model runs should be interesting to say the least.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: E Atlantic Wave 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97849 - Mon Aug 14 2017 11:44 AM

Much confusion with what and where is 91L this morning. Forecasting this system is going to be a problem unless and until (more likely until) there is really something we can hang our hats on. And it also remains very possible that the most interesting parts of the broad area of low pressure that the original 91L wave is starting to merge with ends up being tracked as two distinct disturbances. (91L and 92L, for example).

NHC has shifted their initialization of 91L to the west this morning, now closer to the center of the low pressure trof, and less so the strong wave that just rolled off Africa, and which has not yet merged all that much with the trof. This will change subsequent model runs, probably not by a lot - but perhaps noticeably - from prior runs.

As of 7:45AM EDT, the '91L' wave axis was located near 24W from 05N to 21N, with low pressure centered along the axis near 13N 24W.

However, as of the 10:37AM EDT NHC graphic update, '91L' was positioned at roughly 12N 30W.

And at 10:45AM EDT, NRL had 91L centered at 12.5N 33.8W, and by the next NHC graphical update, it could be this that is being tracked --- and this would be a very substantial repositioning of this Invest. Or, as noted above, we could have two separate Invests to track by this evening.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97853 - Tue Aug 15 2017 10:47 AM




91L is now definitely being tracked as the westernmost Low center associated with the broad monsoon trof, with Invest 92L having just been assigned to the distinct wave to its east.

As of 15/14Z NRL listed Invest 91L at 14.1N 41W with an estimated minimum surface pressure of 1011mb.


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doug
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97854 - Tue Aug 15 2017 12:11 PM

the models have not really bitten on either 91 or 92L yet.

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doug


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doug
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #97857 - Wed Aug 16 2017 03:29 PM

GFS not interested in 91or 92L yet...others showing some development and solutions. Satellite representation does suggest that the time estimations for development rendered by NOAA are reasonable.

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doug


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 91L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #97858 - Wed Aug 16 2017 05:37 PM

91L is looking better and better this afternoon. Since the upgrade last month, the 'new and improved' GFS seems to be missing developments of systems that do develop, and over-hyping others that do not develop at all. I tend to think 91L is probably going to be another miss for the GFS, despite it being historically one of the best genesis models.

When it comes to models so far this season, if a system has the DNA, I've paid more attention to the almost always bullish Canadian, because it is at least picking up on a cyclone, where others, including the GFS, may have not.

12z Runs

The most recent run of the Canadian expects a TD by the time 91L crosses the Lesser Antilles, becoming a mid-grade trop storm by time 91L has traveled half-way across the Caribbean.

Of the hurricane specific models that tend to just run on the assumption that a feature has already, or will develop, the new and improved HWRF follows a similar track and intensity trend, while the new and improved HMON keeps 91L a sloppy Trop Storm through the Caribbean, at best.


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