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Archives 2000s >> 2002 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
GOM Area of Interest
      #982 - Sat Jul 06 2002 05:14 PM

The area well to the south southeast of New Orleans has the potential for slow development. Although associated with an upper level low, there is a good chance for an induced system over the next couple of days. Models keep the upper level low just about stationary for the next few days. SSTs are marginal, but adequate, and shear is light. I suspect that we'll see Invest 95L rather soon - something to pay attention to. NHC may take a look at this area on Sunday.
Cheers,
ED


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Marginal SST's?
      #1000 - Sun Jul 07 2002 09:46 AM

I just looked at an SST map and the waters are 81-84 degrees in this area. I certainly wouldn't call that marginal. Ah, well, just asking.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Marginal SST's?
      #1004 - Sun Jul 07 2002 10:21 AM

I guess that it depends on what SST analysis you look at. The Reynolds analysis, which is about a week old, indicates an SST of about 28C. Since 28C is considered as the minimum threshold for tropical cyclone development (there have been a few exceptions), I used the word 'marginal'. Both the Reynolds and the Otis analysis indicate that the current SSTs in that area are about 0.5 to 1.0C below where they should be for this time of year. Just noticed that NRL has started Invest 95 on the tropical site.
Cheers,
ED


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