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#Maria affecting DR, Approaching Turks and Caicos, but very likely to stay well east of the mainland US. PR seeing the last bands today.
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General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1594
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
HURRICANE Maria Lounge
      #98904 - Wed Sep 13 2017 11:52 PM




A vigorous wave now in the central-eastern Tropical Atlantic roughly 650 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at the time of this post is showing some initial signs of organization, with deep convection curling in towards a broad center.

As of the 8:00PM Sep 13 NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, this disturbance was given a 30% chance of development within 5 days, and this may be conservative.

Movement is generally westward at around 15mph.

This wave has been Invest tagged, 96L, and the title has been updated.

Maria is now a hurricane and the title has been updated. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 17 2017 05:21 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #98914 - Fri Sep 15 2017 04:59 AM

The long range GFS 0z this morning has this as a Hurricane over the Eastern Caribbean islands Tuesday morning, Over Puerto Rico Wednesday night, then Long Island/Rhode Island late on Tuesday, Sept 26th. (after the same area is hit by Jose on sept 20)

0z Euro takes it over the Eastern Caribbean islands late Monday as a TS or cat 1 hurricane, then over the Dominican Republic as a hurricane next Friday, then through the eastern Bahamas late that night, moving north east of the US at the end of the run.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98920 - Fri Sep 15 2017 08:20 AM

6z GFS, cat 1 hurricane between Martinique and St. Lucia Tuesday morning.
Over Hispaniola Friday, then moves north staying east of the Bahamas

Cat 3/4 landfall just north of Savannah GA on Monday the 25th.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98921 - Fri Sep 15 2017 09:45 AM

The GOM,Florida,you just know the east coast is next.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #98924 - Fri Sep 15 2017 12:10 PM

12Z GFS Cat 2 hit on Martinique this go around late Monday night, clips eastern tip of the Dominican Republic Thursday (cat 3), east side over western tip of PR, then moves east of the Bahamas to near where Jose is at right now on Sep 24th, bends back to the west on sept 25th. Cat 3 landfall near Wilmington, NC late night on the 25th.


Bonus storm on the GFS in the Gulf on Sep 28th with a Cat 2 landfall north of Tampa.





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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98926 - Fri Sep 15 2017 02:33 PM

12Z euro for 96L, lanfall near Dominica or Guadeloupe Tuesday morning, near PR Wed-Thursday (Northeast Eyewall clips PR), then moving toward Dominican republic. Then moves NNW just east of the Bahamas. Jose moving south, and TD#14 way to the east, very odd setup. Final frame 96L kicks Jose into Massachusetts on Sep 25th.




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BloodstarModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 433
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98929 - Fri Sep 15 2017 04:06 PM

My thought on the 12Z Euro? Odd is an unsderstatment. If it validates, people will go nuts from the uncertainty

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98930 - Fri Sep 15 2017 04:40 PM

Re:bonus storm the very thought is nauseating. Emily and Irma are enough for one year

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #98931 - Fri Sep 15 2017 05:34 PM

Here in Brevard County I`m watching 96L with a microscope. Lee coming up ? We got spanked here.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98932 - Sat Sep 16 2017 12:54 AM

0z GFS no longer has the bonus storm, but takes 96L as a cat 3 into Jacksonville on Sep 25th, after moving through Hispaniola.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98933 - Sat Sep 16 2017 08:15 AM

Re: bonus storm. That is good news. Let's hope the GFS is overreaching on 96L as well. We would not want its record this year to begin to improve now.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98934 - Sat Sep 16 2017 08:57 AM

0z euro shows 96l as a cat 1 over Puerto Rico thursday, then just east of the Turks and Caicos late Friday night, then ends the run as a Cat 3 approaching Morehead City, NC.


6Z GFS has it over Hispaniola Friday morning, over the Turks and Caicos Friday night, Cat 3 landfall near Charleston, SC on Late Monday the 25th, then exits over Deleware Tuesday (26th) afternoon then another landfall in Long Island the morning of Sept 26th.


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Keith B
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: FL, Orange County 28.59N 81.19W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98935 - Sat Sep 16 2017 10:57 AM


NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
AEC Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98936 - Sat Sep 16 2017 11:52 AM

12Z GFS Running takes it over Guadeloupe /Dominica Tuesday morning. Clips or direct landfall on southwestern Puerto Rico and the clips Eastern Dominican Republic, then goes over the Turks and Caicos on Friday Then a cat 3 landfall near Morehead City, NC on the Evening of Sept 26th, it then stays generally inland for the next 2 days after it, probably causing a lot of flooding.

CMC Has landfalls in Guadeloupe, Haiti, Cuba, South Florida, and Alabama. But keeps it a Tropical Storm after Haiti.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98939 - Sat Sep 16 2017 05:59 PM

18Z for Maria: Seems to be starting out too far north from the get go.

Over Guadalope, cat 2 hurricane Tuesday morning. IOver St. Kits Cat 2/3 Late Tuesday night. Over St. Croix Wednesday morning, cat 3. Over Vieques later that morning, Landfall southeast Puerto Rico midday Wednesday, Cat 3. Exiting NW Puero Rico as a cat to Thursday morning. Clips the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic later thursday morning, then stays north of the island. Cat 3 over Turks and Caicos Friday night. It then moves north and is east of NC on Sep 26, a god deal east, with Jose still around to its east, the GFS gets a bit weird past the Bahamas, so not sure if it should even be taken seriously. No other landfalls.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98943 - Sun Sep 17 2017 04:40 AM

Overnight 0z runs (looking for trends, not exact track)

0z ECMWF: landfall near Dominica late tomorrow night, stays just south of PR Wednesday, over the Eastern Part of the Dominican Republic Thursday, over the Turks and Caicos and Eastern Bahamas next Sunday and the following Monday, Cat 3. Cat 3 landfall near Wilmington, NC Late on Sep 26th.

0z GFS Guadalope landfall Tuesday morning, cat 1/2 hurricane, Virgin Islands Wednesday morning Cat 2/3. veers barely north of Puerto RIoc, over Turks and Caicos Friday midday, cate 3, then stays away from the US, but hits Newfoundland in Canada on Sep 28th. The model is struggling with Jose still around.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98944 - Sun Sep 17 2017 11:42 AM

Maria has really got my interest today. The system has a little more of a westerly movement than a north movement. If this continues, by tomorrow the cone should shift a little more to the left. I was wondering what weather system out there that would possibly steer Maria away from the US and Florida east coast. Does Jose have a bit of a influence on Maria ? I`m going to be watching Maria real close it looks like the rest of next week and in to the weekend. We don`t need any more tropical weather events here in Brevard County, not to mention the rest of the state.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 940
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #98945 - Sun Sep 17 2017 01:01 PM

The discussion I heard today was if Jose is still lingering around the mid Atlantic coast in three days then Maria will move east of the coast. But if Jose is off Newfoundland the the Atlanic High has reasserted itself and Maria will be forced west. This from met at Fox 13 Tampa

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Sun Sep 17 2017 01:02 PM)


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Keith B
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 13
Loc: FL, Orange County 28.59N 81.19W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #98947 - Sun Sep 17 2017 05:30 PM

CMC, 9/17 @ 12Z. Shows a low that appears to be crossing Central America and developing in the Gulf of Honduras, on 9/25. Moves North towards the southeast GOM and then south of Tampa on 9/27. Wow, hyper overactive season.

I would like to see other models show the same pattern to support this.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
AEC Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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TPuppy
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 9
Loc: 28.34N 81.37W
Re: 96L Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #98948 - Sun Sep 17 2017 08:49 PM

Where can I find the CMC that shows this potential issue?

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