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General Discussion >> 2018 Storm Forum

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Weather Hobbyist

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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99315 - Mon Jun 18 2018 04:41 PM

Good call for 2018. Tropical Atlantic SST's are running a good 3F below last year and are the coolest mid-June seas surface temperatures since the early 1980's:

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Keith B
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99316 - Tue Jun 19 2018 04:38 PM

Good article.

Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL

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Weather Hobbyist

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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: Keith B]
      #99318 - Fri Jun 22 2018 01:52 PM

Indeed. very thankful that Dr. Klotzbach is diligently carrying the CSU tropical meteorology research "torch".

Given the increased cooling of the tropical Atlantic in June, should've stuck my original call for 13/6/2. However, my "gut" feeling is there could be a flurry of activity later in the season very close to home that will boost the tally a bit. The western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and even the Florida Straits could originate systems if atmospheric parameters line up favorably with peak SST's achieved a bit later than climatology (early Sept) suggests. I also feel the Sargasso Sea area in the Atlantic basin could be a "hot bed" to departing system intensification, possibly supporting the season's expectation of 2 -3 major hurricanes. Thankfully for areas in the Caribbean and Florida Keys that were hammered by majors last year, Cape Verde origin systems will not have oceanic thermal support unless there is a radical reversal of early summer's significantly cooler SST's.

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Jun 22 2018 01:54 PM)

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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99351 - Sat Jul 28 2018 01:59 AM


Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 28 2018 04:07 PM)

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Weather Hobbyist

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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99835 - Fri Oct 19 2018 01:30 PM

It is looking like the fat lady may be testing her vocal chords to sing her swan song with dew point suppression from progressively stronger frontal activity scouring out the near-home basins. If so, Mike C's near perfect 14/7/3 (one off on majors) is top call. Looks like Doug (13/7/3) and I (14/6/3) tied for second.

2018 seasonal statistics (as of 10/19): Total storms: 14; Hurricanes: 7 ; Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+): 2

Total fatalities
137 (and counting)

Total damage
> $21.57 billion (2018 USD)

source: Wikipedia

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Oct 19 2018 01:44 PM)

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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99844 - Sun Oct 28 2018 05:25 PM

Some thoughts regarding the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

To open, it's blasted through my own and all official forecasts, so at least those of us who underbid are in good (bad) company ;-)

And despite frontal activity scouring close to home, it may actually continue to be busier than average for longer still - possibly even into the final month of the season, or even the year (with the "official" hurricane "season" ending on November 30, but with any "season" total always actually including from first named storm to last in any given year regardless of date).

2018 has been a very good year for subtropical storms (which later transitioned into tropical). The ocean-atmosphere state that has made this so very possible is still in place. The most recent example of this is now Tropical Storm Oscar, that might also very well become a Major hurricane - and possibly also a long-lived tropical cyclone, further beefing up this season's ACE.

A very intriguing footnote to the above is also that the Mediterranean and Black Sea region (calling them a region together, even though no RSMC has yet to really step up with taking responsibility for them), has seen a half dozen - you read correctly - six - subtropical/tropical cyclones "Medicanes" this year to date. Arguably strongest of these at landfall, Zorba, caused catastrophic surge, rain and wind damage in parts of the region.

In addition, perhaps adding to the numbers as we now know them, odds favor post-season reanalysis to look at upgrades to one or more of our named systems so far: Tropical Storm Gordon (Possibly attained Cat 1), Hurricane Helene (Possibly attained Cat 3), and Michael (Possibly attained Cat 5) all jump out for review.

And as always there exists the possibility that NHC finds a previously unidentified subtrop or tropical cyclone. (September 98L comes immediately to mind as a candidate for review).

The big picture view from 50,000' is that 2018 has certainly been overachieving.

So what happened? It's a very good question and one which experts are already looking at and are sure to do so for some time to come.

There may be some other large-scale events that get special attention in their endeavor. One, 2018 is the first year of more reliable records that every single basin in the Northern Hemisphere has been above average. Another, while an El NiƱo is still forecast to form this year, it has had a delayed full onset, and obviously would thus impact just too late to prevent the busy year in the Atlantic underway.

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