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General Discussion >> 2018 Storm Forum

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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 66
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99315 - Mon Jun 18 2018 04:41 PM

Good call for 2018. Tropical Atlantic SST's are running a good 3F below last year and are the coolest mid-June seas surface temperatures since the early 1980's: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capi...m=.df187c9f3b79

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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: FL, Orange County 28.59N 81.19W
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99316 - Tue Jun 19 2018 04:38 PM

Good article.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 66
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: Keith B]
      #99318 - Fri Jun 22 2018 01:52 PM

Indeed. very thankful that Dr. Klotzbach is diligently carrying the CSU tropical meteorology research "torch".

Given the increased cooling of the tropical Atlantic in June, should've stuck my original call for 13/6/2. However, my "gut" feeling is there could be a flurry of activity later in the season very close to home that will boost the tally a bit. The western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and even the Florida Straits could originate systems if atmospheric parameters line up favorably with peak SST's achieved a bit later than climatology (early Sept) suggests. I also feel the Sargasso Sea area in the Atlantic basin could be a "hot bed" to departing system intensification, possibly supporting the season's expectation of 2 -3 major hurricanes. Thankfully for areas in the Caribbean and Florida Keys that were hammered by majors last year, Cape Verde origin systems will not have oceanic thermal support unless there is a radical reversal of early summer's significantly cooler SST's.

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Jun 22 2018 01:54 PM)


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