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General Discussion >> 2018 Storm Forum

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Outlook for 2018 and Numbers
      #99164 - Tue May 01 2018 08:01 PM

This is the post for numbers of storms in the format of TropicalStorms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes. This will be open until June 1st.

My guess for 2018 is 14/7/3



Last year (2017) the final number was 17/10/6 which was way above. Closest was JoshuaK with 17/9/4, followed by ftlaudbob with 18/9/5, and Bloodstar with 18/9/4


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 958
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99167 - Thu May 03 2018 01:02 PM

13/7/3 ( subject to change before board closes. )

--------------------
doug


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 815
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: doug]
      #99168 - Thu May 03 2018 06:52 PM

15/8/5. Good luck to all!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #99169 - Fri May 04 2018 07:23 PM

14/8/3 Best of Luck

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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 100
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #99171 - Wed May 09 2018 06:02 PM

17/9/5

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gsand
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: M.A.]
      #99177 - Fri May 11 2018 09:11 PM

Greetings All,

16/7/3. Stay safe everyone.

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2018 Forecast- 16/7/3


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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 40
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: gsand]
      #99178 - Sat May 12 2018 12:33 AM

17/8/5

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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99193 - Sun May 13 2018 11:52 PM

15/7/4

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Bev
Weather Guru


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Posts: 130
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: Doombot!]
      #99198 - Mon May 14 2018 09:22 AM

16/8/4

--------------------
Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.


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Liz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99199 - Mon May 14 2018 10:19 AM

15/8/4

Edited by Liz (Mon May 14 2018 02:14 PM)


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IsoFlame
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 77
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99200 - Mon May 14 2018 01:19 PM

13/6/2

Edited by IsoFlame (Mon May 14 2018 01:20 PM)


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jtrnr1951
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99206 - Wed May 16 2018 01:55 PM

15, 10, 5

and I hope I'm wrong...


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99239 - Fri May 25 2018 12:58 AM

16/9/5

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B.C.Francis
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: vpbob21]
      #99241 - Fri May 25 2018 07:41 AM

17-7-4 Here we go again. I wonder who`s in the cross hairs this year ?

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IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99287 - Mon May 28 2018 01:21 PM

Couldn't edit my previous prediction issued in early May, so here is the minor tweak (upward) ahead of the June 1st deadline:

14 storms
6 hurricanes
3 majors

I'll add the following gut conjecture... the 2018 season will be busy early with several tropical storms and a weak hurricane (Alberto in late May followed by Beryl in late June then Chris in sometime in July. I believe August and early September will be unusually quiet. Activity cranks up the second half of September, early and late October, and first week of November with 5 hurricanes, 3 achieving major status. My gut suggests males dominate the Atlantic Basin in 2018, with Isaac and Kirk names to remember.

Given the set-up in May of persistent troughiness over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico combined with a weak Bermuda high funneling copious tropical moisture northward out of the western Caribbean Sea, the entire length of Florida from the Keys and southern tip to Pensacola in the Panhandle could be in play.

Edited by IsoFlame (Wed May 30 2018 08:58 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99289 - Thu May 31 2018 04:11 AM

Raw numbers from a methodology I've employed for the past ten years - these are *raw* numbers, and I tend to use them as a baseline from which I look over all sorts of other info - unashamed to say I will also be reading in earnest Colorado State University's updated seasonal forecast, which comes out later this morning - before finalizing my bid.

Right now, my inclination is to actually go lower than my raw findings (image below)



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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99290 - Thu May 31 2018 03:17 PM

CSU =14/6/3. Noted cooling in the basin ascreason for the reduction. TSR= 14/4/1. I will stay with my earlier prediction.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu May 31 2018 03:23 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: MikeC]
      #99291 - Thu May 31 2018 09:31 PM

Several variables leave me viewing 2018 in the Atlantic as rather evenly weighted to around normal, or close to either side thereof, for total numbers of names, hurricanes and majors, but importantly, with an above-average to high landfall risk from the Gulf coast states to the mid-Atlantic.

Given that we have already seen one (preseason) named storm, and indications are that we may very well see at least one in June (early season), I'll go with my system's output of 12 Names, 6 HURs and 2 Majors - offering a most likely range of 9-13 Names, 4-7 Hurricanes and 1-3 Majors. Above average to high risk of U.S. landfalls (which could make season totals moot if any significant cyclones make landfalls, regardless of season formation totals - "It only takes one.")

Final bid for 2018: 12 Names, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Majors


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99293 - Thu May 31 2018 10:06 PM

17 Tropical Storms
8 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes

Still in an active phase

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Outlook for 2018 and Numbers [Re: cieldumort]
      #99295 - Fri Jun 01 2018 01:26 PM

Ok we're locked down for this year. Alberto is a freebie.

(We can track edits, so careful )


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