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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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Keith B
Weather Watcher

Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: FL, Orange County 28.59N 81.19W
Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99311 - Thu Jun 14 2018 05:52 PM


Updating 91L/Other areas. 91L is all but gone from the GFS in 6Z this morning, and Euro has almost no support, however the satellite presentation is decent, I'd expect it to hold at 20% development but never develop.

There is a potential for something to spin off the east coast of Florida seen on the Euro model Sunday, which is still unlikely, but worth watching to see if anything comes of that, if nothing else from the proximity alone. Monday morning it has a TS offshore of West Palm Beach, after spinning up from a low that comes off the coast from near Jacksonville the day before.

Just saw this from MLB AFD @ 1451. In ref to the FB post:

Previous Discussion...

Sun-Wed...Broad high pressure ridging aloft centered over the Ohio
Valley extends southward to across the Florida Peninsula early in
the period. This high pressure gets pushed southward to across the
Gulf Coast States through early next week, then retrogrades toward
east Texas midweek. As this occurs, the latest GFS takes a shortwave
trough along the eastern seaboard and drops it southward where a
closed low circulation develops aloft by late Mon over the Bahamas.
Rotating around the periphery of the previously mentioned high
pressure, it continues through the Florida Straits where it finally
weakens into midweek.

Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Wed
Posts: 67
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: Keith B]
      #99313 - Fri Jun 15 2018 07:03 PM

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion As of 1500 UTC on 6/15/18:
A surface trough is located E of Florida, and extends from 31N77W to 27N80W. Scattered showers and TSTMs are near and ahead of the trough. The trough offshore of northern and central Florida will be overtaken by a backdoor cold front this weekend, which will move S through early next week. The high pressure ridge located S of these boundaries will sink southward ahead of the features. New high pres is forecast to build from N of the area by Tue.

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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3955
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99352 - Wed Aug 01 2018 04:43 PM

August starts with nothing much, the extended EPS (Euro Ensemble Model) doesn't really show much for August, although things change rapidly in September. August 18th or so has a hint of activity in the long range, but not much else. Hawaii may want to keep an eye on on Hector.

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