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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
2018 General Model Watching
      #99173 - Thu May 10 2018 09:33 PM

Starting this one a bit early as the GFS is throwing up a system in the W. Carib around May 20th, and nears the Tampa area on May 25th. Nothing else collaborates it, and it seems a bit too far fetched based on general conditions in May to take too seriously, but I'm still going to mention it. I'm also going to mention I don't think it will develop.

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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99175 - Fri May 11 2018 04:58 PM

Ooops.... I just posted same in the general discussion before I saw your post Mike. Yep~ conditions aren't favorable for this scenario so the GFS is probably out to lunch. However, any low in the eastern Gulf (most often dropping down from the north on the tail of a late cold front) in late May or early June will be in a historically favored region for pre or early season development. I agree that we shouldn't be too concerned for significant tropical cyclogenesis. Whatever pans out will probably be beneficial by kick starting the peninsula's summer monsoon season a week or so early, helping relieve the significant rain deficit (%50) in many parts of south and central Florida.

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri May 11 2018 04:59 PM)


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IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99176 - Fri May 11 2018 05:02 PM

Latest discussion from NWS Melbourne agrees...

Tuesday-Friday (previous)...The cutoff low in the eastern Gulf is
forecast to lift northward and fill by mid week, but with a trough
aloft lingering down into the Gulf. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High will
hold steady and even strengthen a few millibars. This will keep a
moist southeast/south low level wind flow through the week. PoPs
should continue in the likely category through midweek then drop to
40-50 percent late in the week. High temps will be held down into
the lower 80s Mon by clouds/showers then nudge back to the mid-upper
80s by mid-late week.

We will have to see for certain, but the moist pattern setting up
could transition the area into the wet season, which would be a
couple weeks early.


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Keith B
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Loc: FL, Orange County 28.59N 81.19W
Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99181 - Sun May 13 2018 04:39 PM

MLB's AFD from 338 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018. Is conformation to the previous post:

Previous Mid-Range Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sun Night-Wed...Anomalous cutoff mid to upper level low over the
eastern GOMEX will be very slow to ease toward the NNE early next
week, as its center won`t reach the NE Gulf coast until Wed morning.
This feature will act upon the inverted trough which emerges from
the western FL peninsula Sun evening, generating weak surface low
development as it pushes away from the coast. This low will lift
slowly northward in tandem with its parent mid/upper level system.
The local air mass will finish its transition to featuring deep
layer SE to S flow with an anomalously high PWAT air mass of at
least 1.8 to 2.0" several days in a row. Similar to the late May
2009 cutoff over the state, this is expected to "jump start" the
Florida wet season about a couple weeks before the median date.
Several days in a row of well above normal rain chances (numerous to
widespread afternoon/evening showers with isolated to locally
scattered storms) QPF totals are forecast.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99207 - Wed May 16 2018 10:34 PM

I'm extremely skeptical of this, but the GFS and Euro are showing something trying to get going in the eastern Gulf/Cuba late next week, GFS extended has it becoming a hurricane and eventually moving into the Central Gulf toward Louisiana, but not before bringing a ton of rain to Florida. (Again) after going over the Keys and Southwest Florida as a Tropical Storm or hurricane on Sat the 26th. Euro has a strong low or Tropical Storm just north of the west tip of Cuba on Saturday 26 May. The exerimental FV3 GFS actually has it becoming a major hurricane landfalling in Alabama on May 28th.

I remain extremely skeptical about all this based on shearing conditions alone, but it is worth calling out as an area to watch late next week, at least for a lot more rain.


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RedingtonBeachGuyModerator
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Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99210 - Thu May 17 2018 01:10 AM

saw that - came to check in early. Crazy early, eh? Some of the experimental paths are actually looping it back toward Florida late so we'll have to watch it a bit closer to see if it develops and, if so, if it stays west.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99211 - Thu May 17 2018 08:05 AM

This morning's 0Z GFS run shows the gyre start to spin up in the West Caribbean Wednesday, then gets into the Gulf just north of the west tip of Cuba Early Friday morning, then gets up to just west of Florida by Friday Afternoon and starts strengthening, sending massive rain toward Florida. It remains more or less in the same area until Sunday afternoon and makes it up to a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane during that time. (Saturday the 26th is when it hits hurricane) A sloppy cat one makes landfall near Panama City Beach very early on Monday May 28th.

The 0z Euro also shows a similar run, with the system as a Cat 1 Hurricane west of Tampa Saturday afternoon on May 26th. (Where the run ends)

The 6Z GFS is more or less the same as the 0z. The new highly experimental FV3 GFS model is a good deal west toward Texas, but is the outlier there. The 6Z of the same model seems to be trending much further east (its still running). Additionally the ensembles all have the system rather clustered in the Eastern Gulf next weekend.


euro:

gfs:


Don't focus on the details, but just be aware both of the major models are giving us some sort of heads up for late next week 10 days out is a bit long for a forecast. Shear and dry air likely will be working against anything developing (it would keep it fairly disorganized), but moisture is a given either way.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 2018 General Model Watching [Re: MikeC]
      #99231 - Wed May 23 2018 10:10 PM

Although 90L is split between the Euro solution to the west and GFS to the east (and I think the middle w/ Panhandle or Alabama is most likey) There's another system showing up on the long range GFS models for the following weekend in the Gulf (June 2nd) eventually making a florida landfall on Wed. June 6th as a Tropical storm or lower scale Hurricane. It's fantasy range, but the general gist is enhanced rainfal may continue into June.

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