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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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May Gulf Area
      #99182 - Sun May 13 2018 04:44 PM

This area in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten itself together fairly quickly, and the NHC issued a special tropical weather outlook with a 40% chance for tropical or subtropical development.

The biggest story here will be rainfall, upwards of 5-6 inches in parts of the Florida peninsula.

This system isn't purely tropical now, but it could become a small tropical storm before it would eventually landfall (probably somewhere in the Panhandle Wednesday or Thursday) However, most of the rainfall energy will be well to the east, which should drive the rainy weather toward the Florida peninsula. 5-6 inches in a few places, possibly.

There are signals of increased divergence aloft, which is what would be needed for something tropical or subtropical to form in the system. Shear is still fairly strong, but weakening a bit, with both the GFS and European models showing this area developing into a tropical or subtropical storm in 3 days or so.

The forecast lounge is where we make guesses and discuss the forecast models and what they are forecasting, knowing that hey are imperfect (especially the further out in time). Trends rather than specific runs tend to be more important, along with verification of what's actually going on vs what the model projected. And various models taken as a group, with no clear leader.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: May Gulf Area [Re: MikeC]
      #99186 - Sun May 13 2018 05:06 PM

GFS isn't really latching on too well but does show a weak area landfalling in the western Florida Panhandle Thursday early morning. The newe Experimental FV3 (Finite Volume Cubed Sphere) GFS shows it a lot better, as a tropical storm.

Euro shows it meandering a bit in the northeast Gulf first, possible TS or SubTS Thursday into the same area.

CMC and Navgem are also similar.

in short, rain event and likely not much more, but very interesting for this time of year.

Interesting footnote the long range (aka Fantasy range) GFS shows a stronger gulf system the week after next)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...051312&fh=6 continues to be one of the better model links.


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EMS
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Re: May Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #99189 - Sun May 13 2018 09:00 PM

Thanks for the link to Tropical Tidbits. This was indeed a great resource last year for model runs.

Not sure we will see development of the type being predicted but at the very least Florida is going to get a lot of rain over the next couple of weeks.

The COC looks to be getting better defined. Will be interesting to see if this does become a depression soon.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: May Gulf [Re: EMS]
      #99191 - Sun May 13 2018 10:42 PM

One interesting point, the last time this set of names was used (2012) there were two systems that formed in May, Alberto and Beryl, Beryl made landfall in Jacksonville Beach, rather weak though.

This would be a gulf system named Alberto if it did develop. The 1994 version of Alberto caused a massive amount of rain in Georgia. (21 inches of rain in 24 hours)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: May Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #99197 - Mon May 14 2018 07:00 AM

Models this mroning are keeping the area generally weak, but with some chance for development. There is a lot of moisture and definite spin to this one, though.

The Euro is now showing the West. Caribbean system that the GFS hinted at in the long range for May 24th-later or so, which may also be worth watching toward the end of next week.


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