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News Talkback >> 2018 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible
      #99183 - Sun May 13 2018 04:45 PM

This area in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten itself together fairly quickly, and the NHC issued a special tropical weather outlook with a 40% chance for tropical or subtropical development.

The biggest story here will be rainfall, upwards of 5-6 inches in parts of the Florida peninsula.

This system isn't purely tropical now, but it could become a small tropical storm before it would eventually landfall (probably somewhere in the Panhandle Wednesday or Thursday) However, most of the rainfall energy will be well to the east, which should drive the rainy weather toward the Florida peninsula. 5-6 inches in a few places, possibly.

There are signals of increased divergence aloft, which is what would be needed for something tropical or subtropical to form in the system. Shear is still fairly strong, but weakening a bit, with both the GFS and European models showing this area developing into a tropical or subtropical storm in 3 days or so



No invest area currently exists, but likely will soon.

Speculation can be found in The Forecast Lounge

Report what you are seeing where you are at here if you would like.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
test
East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible [Re: MikeC]
      #99190 - Sun May 13 2018 09:52 PM



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible [Re: MikeC]
      #99194 - Mon May 14 2018 01:10 AM



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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible [Re: cieldumort]
      #99195 - Mon May 14 2018 06:00 AM Attachment (74 downloads)

I'm seeing multiple Tornado Warnings in Palm Beach County area.
Apparently the Spin in the atmosphere is increasing in some areas.
Stay Weather Aware!



Edited by danielw (Mon May 14 2018 06:11 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible [Re: MikeC]
      #99196 - Mon May 14 2018 06:52 AM

There have been several Tornado warnings in Palm Beach county because of general spin in the air around this system, more are possible, but no new official updates from the National Hurricane Center yet. It is possible for more of these in Florida, especially Martin county and spreading to a few other places later, so would be wise to be aware of them at least.



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible [Re: MikeC]
      #99205 - Tue May 15 2018 11:04 AM

Abundant dry air plowing in from the west has been evaporating attempts at establishing a coherent subtropical to tropical cyclone out of this one. While slightly more aligned than 24 hours ago, the system remains elongated, with occasional weak vortices rotating around the barely closed off low. NHC now at 10% within 48 hours, as in addition to all of the aforementioned dry air, shear has been going up - and ocean space left to travel before moving inland is going down.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible [Re: MikeC]
      #99223 - Mon May 21 2018 06:24 PM

Gulf system now being tracked as 90L

90L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 90L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float1latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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