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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Alberto Lounge
      #99192 - Sun May 13 2018 11:16 PM

On the heels of what will likely soon be designated Invest 90L* (the presently non-tropical low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico), several models' runs have been lukewarm to bullish on cooking up a stronger cyclone in its wake, and one with much more tropical DNA, and the region is, for reasons that will be discussed below, looking favorable in the back half of this month.

While this 'future cyclone' feature has not yet formed, odds favor development of a solid tropical disturbance at a minimum, one which could easily affect land and ocean interests in the western Caribbean and/or Gulf of Mexico within the next 5-15 days, so we're starting a Lounge. Yes, this is somewhat unusual, as we normally wait for a disturbance to have existed before doing so. Suffice it say, we have time to keep a watchful eye on this potential future cyclone. This could be a significant system, on a relative basis. No hurricanes of record have made landfall along the Gulf coast states during the month of May.

Backdrop
Active Atlantic hurricane seasons have tended to come in clusters in recent decades.

2017 was hyperactive, and occurred within a ramp-up of activity from a nadir in 2013-15. 2017 saw the earliest Main Development Region named storm in history, the first U.S.-landfalling Major since 2005, and set countless other records. 2016 was the first above-average Atlantic hurricane season since 2012.

Other recent active Atlantic 'clusters'
2010, 2011, 2012
2007, 2008
2003, 2004, 2005
1998, 1999, 2000, 2001
1995, 1996

Rhymes with 2012 for $200
And perhaps a little bit of history rhyming - As Mike notes in the Gulf Low #1 Lounge, " the last time this set of names was used (2012) there were two systems that formed in May, Alberto and Beryl." - In the tropics, history can and does somewhat repeat itself. 2012 was the final year in a very active cluster (2010, 11, 12), and yes, indeed, two named storms formed during the month of May.

Analysis and updates to come in subsequent entries


* Invest number 90 was never applied to the earlier May gulf system (NE GOM) we were watching, and so that tag (90L) got applied here to what we have been calling our "May Gulf System #2."

An "Invest" is not an actual meteorological classification (e.g. depression, storm, etc.), but rather just a moniker used when NHC is paying extra attention to a given feature - making clear that they want to INVESTigate it further. - Ciel


Edited by MikeC (Fri May 25 2018 10:10 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99212 - Thu May 17 2018 02:34 PM

The non-tropical low tracked on the main page as well as other threads never developed, but general troffiness extending into Florida continues, with the door now wide open for the state's rainy season. This open door is also an assist for new development, of a much more robustly tropical nature, during the last half of this month.

Opinions on the potential for development later this month run from exceedingly low to modest (I've been at 50/50 for a week now, definitely putting me in the more bullish camp), but what is even far less certain is the ultimate intensity and track of this 'future potential cyclone.' That said, major models are now in general agreement that an area of tropical or mostly-tropical low pressure will form, as soon as this coming weekend or as late as next, and head out of the western Caribbean into or nearly into the Gulf. If this verifies, landfall or landfalls would be all but certain.

Contrary to what some mistakenly believe, "A" named storms can often be as catastrophic as any. Generally, the most dangerous A names have fallen into two groups: The first, tropical cyclones that have developed much closer to the states, get landlocked in the GOM, and the rest is history. The second, smaller group, consists of long-track monsters from the eastern Atlantic. E.g., Andrew. (See image below cr. The Weather Channel)




Here are summaries of each (cr. Wikipedia)

Audrey
Quote:

Hurricane Audrey in June 1957 was one of the deadliest tropical cyclones to ever strike the United States, claiming more than 400 lives along its path. The first named storm and hurricane of the annual hurricane season, it first formed on June 25, 1957, from a tropical wave which moved into the Bay of Campeche. Situated within favorable conditions for tropical development, Audrey quickly strengthened, reaching hurricane status just a few hours after being classified as a tropical cyclone. Moving generally northwards, it continued to strengthen as it approached the United States Gulf Coast. On June 27, the hurricane reached peak sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h), making it a major hurricane.[nb 1] At the time, Audrey had a minimum barometric pressure of 946 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg). The hurricane made landfall at the same intensity between the mouth of the Sabine River and Cameron, Louisiana later that day, causing unprecedented destruction across the region. Once inland, Audrey rapidly weakened and turned extratropical over Louisiana on June 28, before fully dissipating on June 29.



Agnes
Quote:

Hurricane Agnes was the second tropical cyclone and first named storm of the 1972 Atlantic hurricane season. It developed on June 14 from the interaction of a polar front and an upper trough over the Yucatán Peninsula. Initially forming as a tropical depression, the storm headed slowly eastward and emerged into the western Caribbean Sea on June 15. Once in the Caribbean, the depression began to strengthen, and by the following day, it became Tropical Storm Agnes. Thereafter, Agnes slowly curved northward and passed just west of Cuba on June 17. Early on June 18, the storm intensified enough to be upgraded to Hurricane Agnes. Heading northward, the hurricane eventually made landfall near Panama City, Florida late on June 19. After moving inland, Agnes rapidly weakened and was only a tropical depression when it entered Georgia. The weakening trend halted as the storm crossed over Georgia and into South Carolina. While over eastern North Carolina, Agnes re-strengthened into a tropical storm on June 21, as a result of baroclinic activity. Early the following day, the storm emerged into the Atlantic Ocean before re-curving northwestward and making landfall near New York City as a strong tropical storm. Agnes quickly became an extratropical cyclone on June 23, and tracked to the northwest of Great Britain before becoming absorbed by another cyclone on July 6.

Agnes was, at the time, the costliest hurricane to hit the United States in recorded history.



Anita
Quote:

Hurricane Anita was a powerful Atlantic hurricane during an otherwise quiet 1977 Atlantic hurricane season. The first tropical cyclone of the season, Anita developed from a tropical wave on August 29 in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. It tracked westward into an area with conditions favorable for further development, and quickly intensified into a hurricane by late on August 30. Initially, Anita was forecast to strike Texas, though a building ridge turned it to the west-southwest. The hurricane rapidly strengthened to attain peak winds of 175 mph (280 km/h), and on September 2 Anita made landfall in eastern Tamaulipas as a Category 5 hurricane. It quickly weakened as it crossed Mexico, and after briefly redeveloping into a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific Ocean, Anita dissipated on September 4 to the south of the Baja California Peninsula.

The hurricane produced light rainfall and high tides along the Gulf Coast of the United States. Some low-level flooding was reported, but damage was slight. In Mexico, the hurricane caused strong winds and moderate rainfall. The winds caused extensive damage to villages in northeastern Mexico, with about 25,000 people left homeless. The rainfall, reaching over 17.52 inches (445 mm), caused flooding and mudslides which killed eleven people in Tamaulipas. Overall damage is unknown.




Allen
Quote:

Hurricane Allen was a rare and extremely powerful Cape Verde hurricane that struck the Caribbean, eastern and northern Mexico, and southern Texas in August 1980. The first named storm and first tropical cyclone of the 1980 Atlantic hurricane season, it was one of the strongest hurricanes in recorded history. It was one of the few hurricanes to reach Category 5 status on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale on three separate occasions, and spent more time as a Category 5 than all but two other Atlantic hurricanes. Allen is the only hurricane in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (305 km/h),[nb 1] thus making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane by wind speed. Until Hurricane Patricia in 2015, these were also the highest sustained winds in the Western Hemisphere.

Throughout its life, Allen moved through the deep tropics on a westerly to north-westerly course through the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico before making its final landfall near the United States–Mexico border. At peak strength, it passed near Haiti, causing hundreds of deaths and heavy damage. After crossing the Gulf of Mexico, Allen weakened as it struck the lower Texas coast, causing high winds, a significant storm surge, and heavy rainfall, which caused damage to southern Texas. Overall, Allen killed at least 269 people and left $2.57 billion in damages (1980 US dollars), mostly within the United States and Haiti. Because of its impact, the name Allen was retired from the six-year revolving list of Atlantic tropical cyclone names in 1981 and the name was replaced by Andrew. The name Andrew was subsequently retired after the 1992 season's Hurricane Andrew. The remnants of the storm precipitated the end of the heat wave of 1980 in places like Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, which had recorded 69 days of 100 °F (38 °C) heat.



Alicia
Quote:

Hurricane Alicia was a small but powerful hurricane that caused major destruction within the southeastern parts of Texas in August of 1983. The third tropical cyclone, first named storm, and the only major hurricane of the very inactive 1983 Atlantic hurricane season, Alicia struck Galveston and Houston, Texas directly, causing $3 billion (1983 USD)[1] in damage and killing 21 people; this made it the worst Texas hurricane since Hurricane Carla in 1961.[2] In addition, Alicia was the first billion-dollar tropical cyclone in Texas history,[3] and the costliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic until Hurricane Hugo in 1989.



Andrew
Quote:

Hurricane Andrew was a Category 5 Atlantic hurricane that struck the Bahamas and Florida in mid-August 1992, the most destructive hurricane to ever hit the state until Hurricane Irma surpassed it 25 years later. It was the strongest in decades and the costliest hurricane to make landfall anywhere in the United States until it was surpassed by Katrina in 2005. Andrew caused major damage in the Bahamas and Louisiana, but the greatest impact was felt in South Florida, with sustained wind speeds as high as 165 mph (270 km/h). Passing directly through the city of Homestead in Dade County (now known as Miami-Dade County), it stripped many homes of all but their concrete foundations. In total, it destroyed more than 63,500 houses, damaged more than 124,000 others, caused $27.3 billion in damage,[nb 1] and left 65 people dead.

Andrew began as a tropical depression over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 16. After spending a week without significantly strengthening itself in the central Atlantic, it rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 5 hurricane while moving westward towards the Bahamas on August 23. Though it briefly weakened to Category 4 while traversing the Bahamas, it regained its Category 5 status before making landfall in Florida on Elliott Key and Homestead on August 24. With a barometric pressure of 922 mbar (27.23 inHg) at the time of landfall in Florida, Andrew is the fourth most intense hurricane to strike the United States. Several hours later, the hurricane emerged over the Gulf of Mexico at Category 4 strength, with the Gulf Coast of the United States in its path. After turning northwestward and weakening further, Andrew moved ashore near Morgan City, Louisiana, as a low-end Category 3 storm. After moving inland, the small hurricane curved northeastward and rapidly lost its intensity, merging with a frontal system over the southern Appalachian Mountains on August 28.



Allison
Quote:

Tropical Storm Allison was a tropical storm that devastated southeast Texas in June of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. An arguable example of the "brown ocean effect", Allison lasted unusually long for a June storm, remaining tropical or subtropical for 15 days, most of them over land dumping torrential rains. The storm developed from a tropical wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico on June 4, 2001, and struck the upper Texas coast shortly thereafter. It drifted northward through the state, turned back to the south, and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm continued to the east-northeast, made landfall on Louisiana, then moved across the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic...

Following the storm, President George W. Bush designated 75 counties along Allison's path as disaster areas, which enabled the citizens affected to apply for aid. Then the fourth-costliest Atlantic tropical cyclone and still the costliest Atlantic tropical cyclone that was never a major hurricane, Allison was the first Atlantic tropical storm to have its name retired without ever having reached hurricane strength.




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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99213 - Thu May 17 2018 03:57 PM

Operational Euro, GFS and Canadian (among other models) have been trending unanimous over the most recent runs for Caribbean TC genesis and subsequent Gulf threat. I've circled in white the forecast locations of this modeled late May TC. (See image below. Cr. Michael Ventrice, WSI). These forecasts are for about 9 days out from today.


Image credits: @MJVentrice WSI.

The most favored region to watch starting as early as this coming weekend, although more likely next week, for signs of TC genesis is the western to northwestern Caribbean. Alternate possibilities are for genesis to occur on the Pacific side of central America, and then be drawn up into the NW Caribbean later next week, as well as for genesis to be delayed until the progged disturbance is all the way into the Gulf.

Should we indeed see a disturbance in this region within the next ten days, we will update the title at such a time with any Invest tags, TC numbers, etc., as warranted.

This is where to put thoughts on this specific feature's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. All relevant model output discussions are also appropriate here. Caveat emptor.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99214 - Thu May 17 2018 09:35 PM

One trend to note is ensembel means have spread with the latest 18Z runs, quite a bit (compare 12Z GEFS ensemble MSlP means between 12Z and 18Z. If this trend continues it'll likely wind up being fairly disorganized, but still a good rain maker. the main thing dragging the ensembels apart and the main GFS northeast in the 18Z model is picking up a low in the midwest that kinda drives it northeast.

There is still a good amount of time to watch with the system in the longer term. Shorter term really depends on how quickly things get moving in the West Caribbean. the thing working against the northeast movement is that the GFS could be overdoing the weakness. it's possible it gets to Tropical Storm, but beyond seems doubtful in the shear setup. It may actually be stronger east of Florida if the idea of more northeast holds, which would leave Central and North Florida with a fairly short exposure to the wind/rain.

I'm not convinced yet with this system. But once this thing gets away from Florida it should finally start to dry out some.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99215 - Fri May 18 2018 05:26 AM

The overnight models are still a bit iffy with nothing really solid to track until late Wednesday/Thursday, which still brings a lot of doubt into next weekend. If the newest GFS is correct most of Florida, with the exception of the far eastern coast, won't see much from the area, but Georgia could.

But without any solid system to track before it, it would be hard to say. Ensemble spread is higher, with the highest concentration east of Florida on the 26th, which would keep Florida mostly in good shape as far as rain. Surface wise, much doesn't get going until its near the eastern Florida Keys late on Friday (25th) or Saturday morning, along the eastern coast is when the center may be enough for a tropical system in this run. Keeping Florida mostly on the dry side of a sheared storm, however it does put the storm into coastal Georgia.on Sunday morning, which makes for a rainy Georgia later Sunday and Monday.

The Euro is a bit different this time, it keeps the system going through Florida, including the rain through the weekend, Although the majority of the rains winds up east of Florida, it does get a bit stronger when it moves into the outer banks late Sunday into Monday. The Euro never really gets to Tropical Storm strength, however, it keeps it rather disorganized with multiple "centers" along a wave axis that moves into the Gulf, which is why it seems to be more west of the GFS.

The CMC is the furthest west, but brings a very sheared tropical storm into the Big Bend area late on Saturday, which keeps Friday and Saturday morning rainy, but the rest of the weekend clear for Florida.

It being May and nothing having formed (or likely to form) in the Western Caribbean for several days is making it shape up to look like a typical messy sheared May low with a moderate shot for a run at Tropical Development. Anyone east (and perhaps a good ways east) of where the "center" is will get the most rain from it, so the trend for the area moves it east off Florida Memorial weekend won't be much of a washout.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99216 - Fri May 18 2018 06:45 AM

The 6z GFS run is west of the earlier one, and closer to the Euro, it takes the system up through the western side of the spine of Florida, albiet weaker than before. A large rain event in this one, but still with a chance of Tropical Storm development. Wed/Thursday would be when it started consolidating in the west Caribbean, over Cuba Friday Afternoon, Key by late Friday/Early Saturday, Rain for Central/south Florida all of Saturday, with potential for short-lived tornadoes. North Florida and Georgia gets most of the rain Sunday, and Carolinas Toward Monday. The system remains inland in this model run once it gets over Florida.

Still a messy/sheared system, but very much worth watching this coming week. Ensembles seem to trend a bit west this run. I'm thinking more west currently based on climatology, which means flooding rains for Florida, unfortunately. I'm not sold on it becoming anything more than a tropical storm if it managed to stay away from land.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99217 - Fri May 18 2018 05:44 PM

Short update, The 12Z GFS is a bit weaker, but similar run as to the 6Z, west coast of Florida spine up. 12Z Euro shifted west into the Florida Panhandle near Panama City Beach Sunday afternoon (27th) as a tropical storm.

Ensemble mean is a bit weaker, more scattered, east over Florida.

18Z GFS is running now, it has shifted to move it back east of Florida. So in short, Euro moved west, GFS 18Z moved east, probably a very sheared system. But I'm leaning toward the western idea currently.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99218 - Sat May 19 2018 06:12 AM

Overnight runs are weaker, and more sheared on both major models. The 0Z GFS remains east of Florida, keeping it mostly tryi, but hooking it back into Georgia/SC late Sunday, it does shear off quite a bit of energy east away from the system, so it remains weak the entire time. 6Z GFS shifts it slightly west from 0Z.

The 0Z Euro is way west toward Louisiana and much much weaker, over Southeast Louisiana late Monday. Also sheared and mostly a rain maker, but this far west would have little rain impact to Florida, but much more for the north central coast.

In short, this area may never develop, but its worth watching late this week still for the trends. So far the trends are that it's mostly a messy rain maker (and the split between GFS/EURO makes it more likely that it'll remain sheared and weak), and a good case on why not to read into too much with models out this far (other than a general heads up), especially this early and without any solid development. I will state,there is still potential that it will develop also, so it must be watched.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99219 - Sun May 20 2018 09:51 AM

Not too much has changed with the models since yesterday, split with a messy system (non-tropical) moving over/just to the east bringing some rain to Florida on the GFS and Euro showing a messy system into Louisiana. Tropical Development chances are pretty low, but it still is worth watching over the week.

Judging by how the euro performed in high shear situations like this in the past (normally I'd go for Euro), I'm more apt to favor the GFS (but with more Florida rain), no tropical development, and again a lot of rain and maybe a few short lived tornadoes. EPS has a 50% chance for development, but in any case gusty winds and rain for somewhere along the gulf.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99221 - Mon May 21 2018 03:52 AM

Over the weekend we have seen what might be the first hints of something trying to perk up in accordance with earlier model runs, as some weak low-mid level cyclonic flow is noted in the northwestern Caribbean, to the east of Belize - and a more robust circulation actually exists at the surface well south-southeast of that location, closer to 12N 83W.

Potentially complicating things some, is the development of a very weak area of low to mid level circulation further up within the broad, parent trof, now perhaps just inland over the Florida panhandle, with mild cyclonic flow extending out across the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Some model runs have preferred to hone in on this feature for some kind of development at the expense of the more tropically-born disturbance from the NW Caribbean.

For an even wilder Lounge scenario, the experimental parallel GFS wants to spin the Caribbean disturbance around the Panhandle low in Fujiwara fashion, and take that northern branch out west towards just south of Louisiana where it becomes a compact Cat 2. For whatever that is worth, as this model is definitely still in beta - spinning up cyclones like it wants to replace the Canadian for most spuricanes in a single off-season. Still, something to watch, in case it's on to something.

What we really need to see is a disturbance coherent enough to be Invest tagged before placing too much weight on any one model just yet, but the major models generally continue falling into two camps:

GFS - Seemingly weaker and weaker with each new run, spreading a sloppy/elongated mess of a system across the nw Caribbean, Cuba, Florida, gulf stream. Some runs bubble up a brief depression looking thing in this, others don't.

ECMWF/ICON/CMC/NAVGEM - Start to cook things up a little quicker than GFS (which hardly does anything at all) and run this future cyclone west to well west of the Florida peninsula - with the ECMWF and ICON so far west that these models have the future cyclone entirely miss its exist and hang it out as a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the northwestern GOM for days on end - even into next week.

A passing convectively-coupled Kelvin wave could help increase the odds of TCG on about Wed, Th and Fri of the new week. After that, conditions may become less favorable for genesis.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99222 - Mon May 21 2018 03:40 PM

12Z Model runs, GFS moved slightly west toward the west coast of Florida and Big Bend, Euro moved slightly east to extreme southeast Louisiana.. GFS is still very weak and messy, while the Euro is a bit stronger. Split the middle is the Western Panhandle. Either way, there will be a lot of rain for Florida this weekend and points east wherever the system winds up. (personally I think Big Bend or Central Panhandle)

I'm still unsure exactly what happens as there still is nothing currently developed in the Western Caribbean. (and probably will not be until Thursday) so just watch, rain and some wind. 20% development chance seems about right given what's there now, it will likely creep up later tonight or tomorrow.


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Keith B
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99224 - Mon May 21 2018 07:58 PM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.
This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread
cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula. While environmental
conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during
the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical
development is possible later this week while the system moves
slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several
days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 AM
EDT on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

---

With invest 90L info to come.

----

Levi has posted info on this pending system. Tropical Tidbits

Edited by Keith B (Mon May 21 2018 08:07 PM)


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M.A.
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #99226 - Wed May 23 2018 08:34 AM

Looks as though some convection is starting to blow up on top of the COC. Just noticed the NHC has bounced the 5 day outlook to 60% also.

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Keith B
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: M.A.]
      #99227 - Wed May 23 2018 07:26 PM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits. Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula. Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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EMS
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #99228 - Wed May 23 2018 07:52 PM

Even more interesting - the GFS spins up a Cat 2 Hurricane in the Central Gulf and takes it into Tampa Bay at the end of the forecast period (next weekend). Hopefully this is a one-run anomaly!

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Prospero
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #99229 - Wed May 23 2018 08:24 PM

Quote:

Even more interesting - the GFS spins up a Cat 2 Hurricane in the Central Gulf and takes it into Tampa Bay at the end of the forecast period (next weekend). Hopefully this is a one-run anomaly!



Interesting, but there is nothing going on right now that would become that storm as far as I can see. I guess it is out of nowhere. Or is there something I am missing?



June 6 has been a popular day in Tampa Bay for storms lately; June 6, 2016 - Colin, June 6, 2013 - Andrea (one of her tornados came right down our main street in downtown Gulfport, FL on June 6th, 2013).


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Keith B
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: EMS]
      #99230 - Wed May 23 2018 08:28 PM

Quote:

Even more interesting - the GFS spins up a Cat 2 Hurricane in the Central Gulf and takes it into Tampa Bay at the end of the forecast period (next weekend). Hopefully this is a one-run anomaly!




NWS MLB has been ignoring GFS for the past few days. Many variables to be worked out and it remains to been seen what will develop. I am interested to see what Tropical Tidbits will post tonight or Thursday.

MLB AFD, 323 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Late week...Developing low pressure is forecast to slowly emerge
over the southern Gulf from the Yucatan area late this week. Med
range guidance is muddled attm with movements and degree of
central development. GFS wl be discounted attm due to disparity in
its ensemble members, apparent feedback, and deviation from
EC/CMC as noted by recent WPC hemispheric discussion.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: Keith B]
      #99233 - Thu May 24 2018 09:41 AM

I haven't really been paying much mind to models in this situation, I really don't trust systems that haven't formed yet other than general guidance. Euro and GFS were east and west but are starting to converge in thie middle, toward Somewhere between the Big Bend and thie Louisiana/Mississippi state line, with Mobile/Pensacola being in the middle.

I think they will be better to watch once the storm clears the Yucatan (could be as early as tonight, but more likely sometime later tomorrow) and starts to organize, then they will be a bit more useful. I'm more concerned about how big the area to the east will be and how much vorticity with tornadoes and whatever storm surge happens and how much rain. I suspect Florida will be hit or miss with rain, if the "tail" lines up with the peninsula it'll be a wash out, if not it'll be on/off all weekend.


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JMII
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99234 - Thu May 24 2018 11:52 AM

Quote:

I haven't really been paying much mind to models in this situation, I really don't trust systems that haven't formed yet other than general guidance.

I suspect Florida will be hit or miss with rain, if the "tail" lines up with the peninsula it'll be a wash out, if not it'll be on/off all weekend.




Same here. I put no faith in models when you can't define the center.

Really can't believe how much rain we have already gotten from last weeks low that dragged across the state in similar fashion. May is normally beautiful weather wise, I can't remember having a 2 week long wash out like this before. They just managed to get the canal in my backyard back to normal levels from last week's down pours.

From weather.com:
In nine days since May 13, parts of St. Lucie and Martin counties, Florida, picked up 12 to 17 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service. Most locations in the Florida Peninsula have had one of their top-10 wettest Mays-to-date through May 22, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC). The SERCC said both Richmond, Virginia, and Stuart, Florida, already set their record wettest entire month of May, nine days before month's end.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Models' May Gulf System #2 Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #99236 - Thu May 24 2018 02:37 PM

Models are really dependent on where a good center forms for landfall location, it may be moving off the Yucatan now based on sat images (to the east).

Euro has slowed down and entered into cat 1 hurricane range before landfall, GFS is stronger this morning also, and moved a bit west. The zone from LA/MS to Panama City seems most likely, although not 100% where the center eventually forms is a good part of it, and how long it stalls out. Parts immediately east of the center will see the worst of it.

The potential for a hurricane is there, and there are signs it may slow down or stall as it nears the coast as well. However the shear still is a huge factor against that, and is what would push a lot of rain over the main part of Florida.


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