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#96L odds now down to just 10% per NHC, as upper-level winds and interaction with the Greater Antilles has been too much to handle
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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Beryl Lounge
      #99323 - Tue Jul 03 2018 07:55 PM

This is the lounge for the potential long tracker 95L storm in the east Atlantic, models, speculation and more are welcome in the lounge.

The GFS actually forms it into a Tropical Storm this week but it falls apart late into the weekend and moves north of the Caribbean. Euro isn't quite as organized with it, but it has a chance here as well.

Other experimental models keep it further south, but also dissipate it as it nears the Eastern Caribbean islands.


Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 14 2018 02:40 PM)


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Keith B
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Re: July East Atlantic Wave (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99325 - Wed Jul 04 2018 05:09 PM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
455 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure area west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred
miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Satellite imagery indicates that shower activity associated with a
small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become
better organized during the past few hours. Some additional
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form during the next day or two while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic
Ocean. By the weekend, upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development when the system approaches the Lesser
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

--

Keith


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Beryl Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99327 - Thu Jul 05 2018 11:13 PM

Beryl has formed in the Atlantic out of 95L, and a brief stint as Tropical Depression Two. It's a very small system, and as such prone to wild swings in intensity, right now it's on the verge of becoming a hurricane. And it very may well do so, for a bit. Conditions start to get worse Saturday night, but depending on how far south the storm stays, some energy may hang around into the Caribbean.

The GFS model keeps it further south than the Euro, but both tend to tear it apart Late Saturday.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Beryl Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99329 - Fri Jul 06 2018 03:49 AM

Very difficult to analyze exceptionally small TCs, and only all the more complicated when in such far-away, data-sparse locations. Using the best tools available to forecasters, Beryl is now estimated to be on the cusp of hurricane intensity, at 60 knots. One might insert plus or minus 20 knots (and more minus than plus), but this is the best estimate we've got, and it may very well be accurate.

Beryl formed over quite anomalously cool SSTs, at 25.6c vs a long-term 'normal' in this part of the Atlantic at this time of year of about 27c. Dr. Phillip Klotzbach notes that only 'about 5% of all Atlantic tropical cyclones have formed in colder than 26°C SSTs on average, and most of these form much further north.' In fact, in addition to this oddity, Dr. Klotzbach also points out that Beryl now has 'the strongest winds for an Atlantic tropical cyclone this far south (10.4°N) in July on record.'

So either we have a bad case of mistaken identity (overestimating Beryl's true strength, and to some extent, possibly even how well closed off the cyclone is at the surface), or we are indeed witnessing quite a performance from a little tropical low that could.

All that said, it does look like Beryl is well encased within a protective cocoon of very moist air and within a low to very low shear environment. These favorable conditions are mostly expected to last almost up until the cyclone just about reaches the Lesser Antilles by about Monday, at which point models almost universally devolve Beryl into an open wave. However, several keep this area of low pressure quite strong, and a few suggest redevelopment once in the the central Caribbean or closer to the Bahamas.

Given Beryl's exceptionally small size, rapid weakening and dissipation would normally be the near certain outcome, but considering both the nest with which the cyclone rides in and its vigor, these models that open the cyclone back up into a tropical wave never to reform might be getting it wrong.

Soon Beryl will be within range of hurricane hunter missions. This information will probably prove very helpful in sorting this one out.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane Beryl Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99337 - Sun Jul 08 2018 02:24 PM

The last 24 hours have been very tough on tiny Beryl, with scatterometer and recon data showing that the process of degenerating into an open wave is well underway. Unless a substantial increase in organization occurs this afternoon, the Final Advisory will likely be written, and the system would probably track into the eastern Caribbean as a vigorous tropical wave with some heavy showers, storms and strong wind.

Later in the week, Beryl, or her remnants, may have a chance to get better organized, but at this time forecast steering currents suggest a recurvature out to sea of anything possibly significant (still too early to know for sure).


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