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General Discussion >> 2018 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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TD 11 Lounge
      #99652 - Wed Sep 19 2018 09:17 PM



An African Easterly Wave formerly embedded within the ITCZ has been interacting with a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave, and is showing some initial signs of development this evening. This feature has just been Invest tagged 97L, and NHC has raised their bid to 20% on development through perhaps about Friday, before conditions for TC genesis are expected to become less favorable.

As of 9:30PM AST, 97L was located roughly 875 miles east of the Windward Islands, or near 47W 9.5N, with a slow movement generally to the west-northwest. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be around 25 KTS with a pressure of 1009 MB.

While conditions over the Atlantic basin in totality are less than climatology, a few regions are at least marginally conducive, and a tropical depression or storm could form before this disturbance reaches the Lesser Antilles. A few models have been picking up on this over the past few days, with even more model buy-in today. From the looks of things, one might expect to see even more buy-in yet with the coming 0z runs.

This is a robust wave in what looks to be a conducive environment for development. Given its small, compact size, rapid genesis into a TD or TS seems very plausible.

97L is confirmed a Tropical Cyclone and NHC will initiate advisories at 11 PM AST today Sep 21. The title has been updated accordingly. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 21 2018 10:16 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99661 - Fri Sep 21 2018 03:02 AM



Indications are that 97L developed a well-defined LLC during the day Thursday with some organized convection, but it remained less than conclusive that this circulation ever established at the surface. With rapidly increasing westerly shear and dry air ahead, the window for this small wave to become a small TD is probably soon closing. Blustery showers are still possible along its westward track, regardless.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99663 - Fri Sep 21 2018 05:34 PM

We have not had the benefit of a scatterometer pass, buoy, ship or recon reports, but relying solely on high-res visible satellite imagery today and satellite-derived surface-adjusted wind analysis based on cloud motions, a case could be made that 97L has become a sheared tropical cyclone .. (unofficially).

Take note of the well-defined LLC in the close-up image below.

With moderate to high shear and dry air continuing to impinge on the cyclone from the west, 97L is not expected to develop any further by almost all models' runs (and that has also been the NHC forecast), but the vigor of this small system may be getting missed owing to its very small size that is likely being poorly captured by the models, especially without the benefit of the usual data ideally being fed into them to work with.

Worth keeping a close eye on as it is still heading west towards the Lesser Antilles.



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: TD 11 Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99664 - Sat Sep 22 2018 02:02 AM

ELEVEN is comprised of a very small, but well defined LLC located within 75nm to the west of deep convection. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally running as low as 25 KTS to as high as 32 KTS (real-time objective), but a very clean scatteromter pass from 0007z shows a couple of 35 KT vectors occurring within the deep convection to the southeast - possibly legit, given the intensity of the convection around the time of this pass. (Image below)


It will be interesting to see how well ELEVEN holds up in the face of stout westerly shear and dry air which has been keeping it a lopsided tropical cyclone. Most models still do not pick up on it much, if at all (likely unable to resolve such a small TC), and NHC is calling for dissipation within 72 hours, if not sooner. But vigorous ones can and do sometimes pull upside surprises, despite their alleged vulnerabilities.


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