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General Discussion >> 2019 Storm Forum

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions
      #99862 - Wed May 01 2019 10:37 AM

This is the post for numbers of storms in the format of TropicalStorms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes. This will be open until June 1st.

My guess for 2019 is 11/8/4


Last year (2018) 15/8/2 was the final number at the close of the season.
Liz was closest with 15/8/4 Frederick was also very close with 14/8/3


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 818
Loc: hollywood,florida
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99864 - Wed May 01 2019 12:01 PM

12/5/3

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Wingwiper
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 13
Loc: Florida
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99865 - Sat May 04 2019 12:35 PM

13/6/3

--------------------
Rode out Charlie on Sanibel Island 2004


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EMS
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: Wingwiper]
      #99866 - Sat May 04 2019 04:17 PM

14/7/2

Feel like this year’s official forecasts are a little too low again.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 868
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99867 - Sat May 04 2019 06:13 PM

13/7/3

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 322
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MichaelA]
      #99868 - Tue May 07 2019 10:07 AM

13/9/3 ? Land of the love bugs right now beachside.

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beachcrafts
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: in Boynton Beach, Fl
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99869 - Wed May 08 2019 08:31 AM

13/6/3

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99870 - Wed May 08 2019 05:09 PM

14/6/3

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 970
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99871 - Fri May 10 2019 06:02 PM

12/6/2

--------------------
doug


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jtrnr1951
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: doug]
      #99872 - Sat May 11 2019 06:23 AM

15-10-5

Hopefully I'm wrong again....


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99873 - Sun May 12 2019 11:10 AM

12/6/3

Keeping it simple with the common multiplier 2.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 111
Loc: Ohio
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99874 - Mon May 20 2019 12:55 AM

11/5/2

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Larry
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Raleigh, NC
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: vpbob21]
      #99879 - Thu May 23 2019 01:28 PM

12/7/4

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 155
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99880 - Thu May 23 2019 07:17 PM

14/9/4

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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 104
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: JoshuaK]
      #99881 - Fri May 24 2019 05:43 PM

14/6/2

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: IsoFlame]
      #99882 - Mon May 27 2019 02:45 PM

Tweaking my original prognostication of 12/6/3 to 13/5/3

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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gsand
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 29
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99883 - Tue May 28 2019 05:55 AM

11/4/2
Stay safe everyone...

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2


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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: Orlando
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99884 - Wed May 29 2019 07:54 PM

My best guess is 13 / 6 / 3 .

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1915
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #99887 - Fri May 31 2019 11:34 PM

Using a slightly tweaked version of a general formula I've been working on the past several years, I'm going with a range of
11-17 Names, 5-9 Hurricanes, 2-4 Majors, and for the purpose of our contest 14 Names, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Majors (Including our already named "A storm").

As for Atlantic-side (Gulf, Caribbean, Atlantic) US impacts (continental and/or islands), I'm looking for:
*Better than historical average odds of TC landfalls.
*Better than the historical average of flood-producing tropical cyclone impacts (potentially including "just" Tropical Depression/s).
*Average historical odds of a Major US landfall (less than 2018, but still significant!)

In the Central/East Pac, the potential for another above-average impact season (Hawaii, California/Southwest).


2019 Contest Numbers in the Atlantic:
14 Names, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Majors


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BloodstarModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 449
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Outlook for 2019 and Number Predictions [Re: cieldumort]
      #99889 - Sat Jun 01 2019 03:54 AM

Really, Im just slow to realize that it's already June!

My reasoned guess is:
16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 Majors.

Above average season but not anything super hyperactive.

Looks like a,positive ENSO, and warmer SSTs will combine to make conditions for storms but higher shear will limit the number of hurricanes slightly.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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