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System riding coast of South Carolina has a 20% chance for development, likely just rain though.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 36 (Barry) , Major: 312 (Michael) Florida - Any: 312 (Michael) Major: 312 (Michael)
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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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TD#3 Forecast Lounge
      #99973 - Sun Jul 21 2019 08:44 AM

No model support yet, but there is enough vorticity to make it worth watching. IF this were late August or September it probably be much more concerning. It's been mostly surrounded by dry air, but is gaining some moisture. It's fighting a front coming up as well, so the chances for anything happening are quite low. But because of the location it's now designated 94L.


No real model support, but the chance for a small system ramping up is still there.

None of the major models do anything with it, but the main vorticity on the GFS goes over Florida late Tuesday and Wednesday, without development and the Euro doesn't even show that.
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 94L (E. of Bahamas) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99977 - Mon Jul 22 2019 12:33 PM

This is showing signs a LLC is forming near Andros island, it may spin up quickly if so. Recon is scheduled for tomorrow. It will likely move north, most folks won't even notice its there unless they are in the Bahamas or right at the coast, closest Florida approach will probably be West Palm Beach (no landfall), before it goes away.

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BloodstarModerator
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Re: 94L (E. of Bahamas) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99979 - Mon Jul 22 2019 05:02 PM

Well, NHC pulled the trigger. I'm a little surprised. but they know what they're doing. LOL

Don't expect much though the environment doesn't look too dry. Doesn't seem to be a lot of shear either.

interesting.

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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 94L (E. of Bahamas) Forecast Lounge [Re: Bloodstar]
      #99980 - Tue Jul 23 2019 12:32 PM

The question I have is, do they find 03L was the shortest-lived TD ever in reanalysis. There's good reason to believe that it devolved into a trough as the initial advisory went out, and never really recovered. As TDs are neither counted towards season ACE or named totals, it doesn't matter so much either way, other than for historical accuracy.

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BloodstarModerator
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Re: 94L (E. of Bahamas) Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #99981 - Tue Jul 23 2019 04:54 PM

For being a trough, ex TD 3 looks pretty good on satellite.

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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.


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doug
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low in GOM [Re: Bloodstar]
      #99982 - Thu Jul 25 2019 08:48 AM

The radar this morning clearly presents a broad low in the GOM west of Citrus County about 150 miles, The presentation is hinting at some organization with two bands of storms slowly rotating around the broad low area. I think this bears some attention.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Jul 25 2019 08:51 AM)


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