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#Chantal hanging on as a TD. Our attention has turned to two systems closer to home: A Bahamas Trof (30%) and W Gom Trof (< 10%)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Barry) , Major: 316 (Michael) Florida - Any: 316 (Michael) Major: 316 (Michael)
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E at 17 mph
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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Invest 96L (E. Atlantic) Forecast Lounge
      #99990 - Wed Jul 31 2019 08:53 PM

96L Is raised with a 70% chance for development. Models show a hurricane crossing the NE Caribbean.

Model Summary so far:

18z GFS Shows storm forming near NE Caribbean islands on Tuesday morning, hurricane over the Virgin Islands Tuesday night. Cat 2 hurricane near Tuks and Caicos on Wednesday. Stays JUST east of the Bahamas, closest approach to the US in on Fri Aug 9th, but is well east of the US And just east of Bahamas. Then out to sea. (Shifted west from 12Z run)

18z Legacy GFS takes it over Hispaniola on Aug 7, Cat 2 over Andros island in the Bahamas on Aug 9, Between Freeport and West Palm Beach August 7 in the afternoon. Cat 3. Curves out to sea after that. (Shift west from 12Z run)

18Z CMC Turns it out to sea well before the Caribbean and recurving it east of the Bahamas (weak).

12Z Icon does not show it at all

12Z Euro shows it keeping north of the Caribbean,


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 96L (E. Atlantic) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99991 - Thu Aug 01 2019 05:46 AM

Overnight Model runs (0z): In short, very mixed messages, leans toward weaker/east of the US

0z Euro: Never develops this system, rains over the NE Caribbean on Tuesday. TUTT low destroys it.

0z GFS: Over Martinique as a TS/Depression on Tuesday, Tropical Storm clips Southwest Puerto Rico on Wednesday, then over the Dominican Republic. Over Igagua Islands in the Bahmas as a Storm/Depression on Thursday. Becomes a hurricane near Freeport, Saturday the 10th, Stalls east of Flagler Beach on The 12th, cat 1/2 hurricane. Nudges Southwest toward Daytona Beach (But remains offshore) closest approach it's a cat 3 on Aug 13th. Most of the bad weather remains offshore. then heads back Northeast out to sea, paralleling the coastline. (Shift west from last run)

0z Old/Lefacy GFS: Stays in the Caribbean and crosses over Haiti on Aug 8th as a Tropical Storm, weakens, slides between Cuba and the Bahamas, Landfall Miami August 10th as a Cat 1 hurricane in the early morning, over Tampa by the evening where the run ends. (Shift west). Note: Extremely unlikely track.

0z CMC & 0z Icon: Recurves out to sea before the Caribbean.

0z HWRF has a Cat 2 hurricane east of the Caribbean on Tuesday (NE of Barbados)
0z HMON Has a cat 1 hurricane 150 miles east of Antigua on Tuesday


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 96L (E. Atlantic) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #99992 - Thu Aug 01 2019 06:28 AM

6z GFS does not develop the system at all, similar to the Euro. It does move the rain over the NE Caribbean and Hispaniola. The weak energy left never develops, but eventually goes near SE Louisiana on August 13th.

Generally the biggest reason I see that the Euro and now GFS aren't developing it it's forming a TUTT that just interferes with any of 96L getting organized.



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