MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Eyes on Dorian
Mon Aug 26 2019 06:25 AM
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3PM EST 28 August 2019 Update
Dorian is now a Hurricane and on a rather fast track to what could very well be Major status.
Original Entry
Tropical Storm Dorian is a compact Tropical Storm with 60mph winds east of Barbados in the Eastern Caribbean, it's a little under 24 hours away from Barbados this morning. And because of this,tropical Storm Warnings are up in Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines A little outside the time range for warnings, there are Tropical storm watches are up for, Saba, St. Eustatius, Dominica, Martinique, Grenada and its dependencies. Some of these likely will change to warnings.
Beyond this Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola will need to watch, models seem to be struggling with he relatively small size of the system and weaken it over the eastern Caribbean, but it may noi so a hurricane is forecast for the eastern Caribbean. It would be extremely late Wednesday or Thursday morning before Dorian would approach those areas, however.
Beyond the Caribbean, the cone now extends into the central Bahamas, so those there, and Florida, will need to pay attention to Dorian, particularly on how strong it is and what the state of Dorian is after passing Hispaniola. It's very possible or even likely that Dorian dissipates over Hispaniola, but if it does not things could change quickly. So for those of us in Florida, everything will depend on how strong or weak Dorian is after exiting the Caribbean, which means we probably won't know until very late Thursday or Friday morning.
Odds favor the system weakening or even getting torn apart which would likely keep it just increased rain-showers over Florida on Labor Day, but there is enough uncertainty between its small size and dependency on exact track near Hispaniola that we shouldn't ignore it.
So what we'll be lo0king for with a tiny compact system: rapid rises or drops in strength, how it does in the East Caribbean, particularly tomorrow and Wednesday, exactly where it goes on Thursday (over Hispaniola, clipping Hispaniola, or missing it entirely). And the state of it after it exits the Caribbean. Once it does the focus will then be on recon and how intact (or not) the system is which could indicate impacts on the Bahamas and Florida.
Currently the models favor Dorian on the very weak side (effectively just slightly more rain than usual) as it approaches Florida.
Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.
Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Tropical Storm Erin Lounge, Hurricane Dorian Lounge, W Gulf Low _90L_ Lounge
Have any questions or suggestions for preparing for Dorian? Please join the conversation: Dorian Prep ASK/TELL
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