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Extreme flooding underway in parts of SE TX from now TD Imelda. Jerry continues to strengthen. #96L in Carib another possible flood-maker
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Dorian) , Major: 344 (Michael) Florida - Any: 344 (Michael) Major: 344 (Michael)
40.0N 58.0W
Wind: 100MPH
Pres: 965mb
Moving:
Nne at 20 mph
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18.5N 59.6W
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Pres: 989mb
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Wnw at 16 mph
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General Discussion >> 2019 Storm Forum

GeorgeN
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 11
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area
      Thu Sep 05 2019 12:14 PM

Unbiased and accurate storm reporting is a topic that I often discuss with family and friends. With so much weather info available, it seems like everyone with a computer wants to "help with the forecast". When you have so many people trying to get attention, you end up with statements like this:
"Dorian is about to hit Florida hard. The most urgently worded hurricane update
The storm is projected, at this time, to make landfall as a Category 4 or higher hurricane somewhere between Melbourne and Ft. Lauderdale."
https://community.windy.com/topic/9449/d...ricane-update/2

Granted this statement may have been posted with good intentions, but I think it inspired more panic than preparation. At the time, the storm was high over the Dominican Republic and hundreds of miles from Florida. Any landfall in Florida was pure extrapolation at this point, but it did not stop the author from making a statement that would surely gain public attention.

I think it's time to bring some honesty into the NHC forecast maps. Yes, the models were accurate, but only within a max of 2-3 days. The longer extrapolations seem to always point directly to Florida. The NHC makes it clear that this trajectory is just an extrapolation from models which are inaccurate past a certain point. But, people tend to jump at these projections and then make their own conclusions, and then make public statements.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dorian Conditions in Your Area MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 05 2019 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area GeorgeN   Mon Sep 09 2019 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area GeorgeN   Tue Sep 03 2019 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area bob3d   Tue Sep 03 2019 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area IsoFlame   Tue Sep 03 2019 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area thatmoody   Tue Sep 03 2019 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area IsoFlame   Tue Sep 03 2019 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area thatmoody   Tue Sep 03 2019 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 03 2019 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 03 2019 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area IsoFlame   Tue Sep 03 2019 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area GeorgeN   Mon Sep 02 2019 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area JMII   Mon Sep 02 2019 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Colleen A.Moderator   Tue Sep 03 2019 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area jastrowx   Tue Sep 03 2019 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area jastrowx   Tue Sep 03 2019 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area IsoFlame   Wed Sep 04 2019 07:21 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Rubber Ducky   Wed Sep 04 2019 07:57 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area IsoFlame   Wed Sep 04 2019 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Prospero   Wed Sep 04 2019 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Tazmanian93   Wed Sep 04 2019 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Prospero   Wed Sep 04 2019 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area kspkap   Thu Sep 05 2019 01:16 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area GeorgeN   Thu Sep 05 2019 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area kspkap   Fri Sep 06 2019 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Rubber Ducky   Thu Sep 05 2019 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area kspkap   Fri Sep 06 2019 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area GeorgeN   Thu Sep 05 2019 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Prospero   Tue Sep 03 2019 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area thatmoody   Tue Sep 03 2019 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area JMII   Tue Sep 03 2019 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area JMII   Tue Sep 03 2019 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area thatmoody   Tue Sep 03 2019 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Prospero   Tue Sep 03 2019 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area MissBecky   Tue Sep 03 2019 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area justmeinflorida   Tue Sep 03 2019 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area RDDW   Tue Sep 03 2019 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 02 2019 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 02 2019 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area kspkap   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area JMII   Mon Sep 02 2019 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Dorian Conditions in Your Area Prospero   Mon Sep 02 2019 12:01 PM

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