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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Dorian) , Major: 369 (Michael) Florida - Any: 369 (Michael) Major: 369 (Michael)
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E at 23 mph
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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4239
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Karen Lounge
      Tue Sep 24 2019 04:45 PM

The 12z Euro has a big slowdown at the end of the run that it didn't have yesterday, this lowers that chance of a US impact if that holds. It'll be tough to break climatology here and not stay out to sea. But it's still worth watching to see how big a loop back it gets. I think the 5 day is pretty good though. Right now I don't think Karen will directly impact Florida with a landfall, but we'll see how it goes.

Things to watch for in the trends... before this weekend it's just flat out guessing. Do the models keep trending to the right (like they have been in the long term... 7+ days... not so much in the shorter term as the west loop seems likely then.) One run does not make a trend, although persistence is still the key in a lot of these models. (and right now beyond 6-7 days they aren't persistent)



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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Karen Lounge cieldumortModerator Tue Sep 24 2019 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge Robert   Tue Sep 24 2019 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 24 2019 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 25 2019 05:48 AM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge Robert   Wed Sep 25 2019 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge MissBecky   Thu Sep 26 2019 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge Robert   Thu Sep 26 2019 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Karen Lounge Robert   Thu Sep 26 2019 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge craigm   Sun Sep 22 2019 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 22 2019 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Sep 23 2019 09:49 AM

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