Yes Alan, I hear you. Storms that come in like Henri from the GOM ahead of a trough usually have a tough time getting together because of the shear from the approaching short waves, and this was the case again. I was on the coast here for Erin (minimal), and had brushes with Irene and Floyd, but that's about it. Florida will get hit by a major cane though....just a matter of time. Could be Isabel, or could be 10 years from now, but its gonna happen and it will be a rude awakening for some. The deal is, like Andrew, for a storm to have the most impact IMO it needs to have a strong building ridge to the north and a good heat source. And the timing would have to perfect for a central Florida hit. When storms like Fabian come across the Atlantic, their low pressures' gonna displace the pressure balance somewhere, and ultimately when it gets far enuf west to have an affect, the induced affect on the global pressure will cause a resultant trough. My opinion only, but seems to hold up most times. The situations I find most interesting are like the one with Isabel. Here's a storm riding west in the wake of departing Fabian which should cause the ridge to rebuild to the south, then SW. THis should allow Isabel to stay further south and on a more westerly course. The question upstream will be whether we will have high pressure building down into the northeast when (if) Isabel passes west of the BOX. And the trough (which should be between the re-built ridge and a CONUS high building into the NE) does not amplify as Fabian's did. This setup has far more possibilities for CONUS landfall than the previous scenario. Not that I'm rooting for one mind you, but just laying out the factors I see as important for the setup. Its a probabilities thing...and Isabel has a shot at being a red ball. LOL!! Cheers!!
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