My local tv stations need proofreaders too, as they put up graphics showing the same thing. A couple of factors are in play:1) the NHC doen't have good photo coverage of Isa right now, and 2) no model could have been run correctly because they didn't have the position and direction right to begin with. As far as I can tell there running off the Meteosat images, which are every six hours. Well, I think there every six hours because that's all I can find. I know it's not in GOES range yet, won't be until tomorrow.
As far as the models go, I've tried to look at what's happening around the storm, such as the ridge above it. I havn't seen anything that curved Isa away from the islands at all, and the door does not seem open for it to run shortly after that( to the north). My early gut feeling is with it being 2-3 degrees further south than Fabian, and with everything building back in down the road, that it could be far more trouble than Fabian was, but not as strong. I swear that even if it took a WNW, NW jog after the islands, the high above it builds in hard core cutting the escape route off. But that's my early, no clue take on things.
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