maybe. but it says 500mb height center SE of bermuda.. that means it would be turning NW around the periphery SW of bermuda. so basically, if this is the developing pattern, it only assures westward movement to near 60w.. unless the ridge continues to bridge westward. ecmwf didnt do a great job with fabian (comparatively it was average), but it is carrying isabel westward just north of the islands.. that holds some weight in my mind. gfs has it skimming the leewards and then slowing east of the bahamas and going straight out.. typical. note that this morning isabel has jumped further NW than eariler forecast, so some of those 00z model runs may already have bugs. at this point, lets wait until the storm turns westward under the developing ridge, then we'll get an idea of its trajectory.
97L.. far far to the east, is developing. thats juan in a day or so. some early model runs recurving the storm very far to the east.. some globals carry it westward. once it develops they should get a better hold.
henri's persistence will play into how progressive things are near the east coast, and how the nearby features develop. at this point more of the globals are shifting back to a system persisting near the mid-atlantic.. some stationary and some with the nhc's eastward bend and a southerly turn. very weak system so it's probably throwing the models quite a bit.
with the high coming down in the east, low pressure in the western caribbean will be favored as an equalizing feature. 00z nogaps has the weak wave currently near the windward islands behaving mischeviously by next weekend near jamaica.. have to see if this persists. convergence in the gulf isn't amounting to much.
climo peak is awfully close.
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