12z euro has isabel moving wnw just east of the bahamas on the morning of 14 september. given that it tracks the early stages of isabel as a weak system, though the resulting position isnt much different than the consensus. gfs has something similar (although it stops practically every storm east of the bahamas and sends it to newfoundland). of course this euro and eta also keep wanting henri to nudge its way north once the core of the surface ridge moves northeast of it, with the storm running up towards new jersey. would have to be some kind of hybrid at that point, i assume.. think the nhc solution is probably closer.
that cape verde disturbance is now showing a 2.0 ssd rating. nhc had better go ahead and classify the damned thing or we'll have another system skipping the depression stage. tomorrow's forecast: out with fabian, in with juan. that would qualify as a nice burst, going from f to j in the space of 2 weeks. no sign of kate yet.
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