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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Westward turn?
      Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM

wobble maybe. if it's doing it for four hours or so you can start considering it a turn. think maybe i'm starting to see how the upper pattern ahead of isabel is evolving. upper trough ahead is stretching and disconnecting, with the northeastern of the three upper centers nudging east, the middle one pinwheeling westward around the large one to the south (which is heading west itself). as the trough to the west breaks down it may become an outflow jet, with the ridging currently north of the trough building across the hurricane. meanwhile the upper trough behind isabel continues to dig in, in tandem with its advance. basically there will be two ventilating upper lows on either side, with a ridge built across to the north.. if i'm reading the wv evolution right. models are trending toward the remnant disturbed weather with henri to shear away, though some persist the disturbed weather. the upper system ahead of isabel is tracked wnw to near the bahamas, then gfs degenerates it to a trough and sends it out as shortwave over the east grabs it.. around the weekend.. while some of the upper energy associated with the shortwave splits and digs into the central u.s. the result of this is the subtropical ridge north of isabel advancing into the southeastern united states in about a week... with the storm advancing underneath.
for this to verify it will take a lot of things happening together.. models will evolve closer to the truth over time.. all it takes is the model tendencies to weaken upper troughs too quickly, or time shortwaves wrong or get the amplification of ridges/troughs incorrect down the road.. but if things verify even close to the current trends we could have a very bad situation on our hands next week.
other things to watch..
1) td 14. if the convection doesnt regenerate in the next 12hrs or so, call it dead. watch to see if it goes up ahead of the upper trough ahead of it, or if it keeps low and nudges westward as weak system.
2) wave near 70w. this is a weak wave, but it may move into a favorable environment by late in the week west of jamaica.
3) henri's tail. trough tails back from henri's low towards south florida. upper ridging that henri originally developed under is the currently the western piece of the subtropical ridge.. trough under ridge.. you get the picture. low to the north would have to weaken for it to become a significant feature.
4) pacific development. watch the itcz disturbance near 90w, a developing eastpac system would alter the nearby upper air features, propagating upstream into the atlantic. it might also precipitate more atlantic development
5) fabian's wake. isabel is north of it, and shouldnt cross it (if it follows the nhc path) for about 3 days. still, it crossed fabians early path a few hours ago, and the convective tops have weakened some (may be an effect of dry air entrainment, or the start of eyewall contraction cycles).
there, thats enormous and probably pseudo-science as i've possibly analyzed past the extent of what i know about synoptic weather.. but just maybe i've got some of the ideas right.
HF 0230z09september

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Isabel Forms and Heads West Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM
. * * NEW Melbourne Discussion clyde w.   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:35 PM
. * * Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion Beach   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:31 PM
. * * Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion Jamie   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:36 PM
. * * Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion Beach   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:08 PM
. * * Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion clyde w.   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:46 PM
. * * Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion Kevin   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West LadyStorm   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:49 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West MoparMitch   Tue Sep 09 2003 01:24 PM
. * * wobbles north? LoisCane   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:12 PM
. * * Re: wobbles north? Bill   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Frank P   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Tropics Guy   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:15 PM
. * * wobbles all the time HanKFranK   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:30 PM
. * * Re: wobbles all the time zoidy   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:50 PM
. * * major canes HanKFranK   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:57 PM
. * * Re: major canes zoidy   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:07 PM
. * * Re: wobbles all the time Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:56 PM
. * * Re: wobbles all the time zoidy   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:03 PM
. * * Tampa 'Canes StPeteGuy   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:52 PM
. * * Re: wobbles all the time Frank P   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:16 PM
. * * Re: wobbles all the time Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Tropics Guy   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:29 PM
. * * It is moving more north than predicted Cycloneye   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:26 PM
. * * Re: It is moving more north than predicted Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Bill   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West MoparMitch   Tue Sep 09 2003 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West javlin   Tue Sep 09 2003 07:28 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West spky2001   Tue Sep 09 2003 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 08:56 AM
. * * model camps HanKFranK   Tue Sep 09 2003 09:50 AM
. * * Re: model camps HanKFranK   Tue Sep 09 2003 09:51 AM
. * * Re: model camps Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 10:40 AM
. * * Re: model camps jlauderdal   Tue Sep 09 2003 10:48 AM
. * * Re: model camps Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 10:53 AM
. * * Re: model camps Tgunn   Tue Sep 09 2003 11:03 AM
. * * Re: model camps Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 11:09 AM
. * * Re: model camps islander   Tue Sep 09 2003 12:37 PM
. * * Re: model camps Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 12:54 PM
. * * Re: model camps Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 01:01 PM
. * * Re: model camps Joe1   Tue Sep 09 2003 11:52 AM
. * * Re: model camps Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 12:36 PM
. * * Re: model camps Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:04 PM
. * * Re: model camps Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:51 PM
. * * West turn will begin SOON Kevin   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:00 PM
. * * Re: West turn will begin SOON Lisa NC   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:17 PM
. * * Re: West turn will begin SOON Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:26 PM
. * * Re: West turn will begin SOON Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:27 PM
. * * Re: West turn will begin SOON hypercane   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Hypercane Kevin   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Hypercane hypercane   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:30 PM
. * * Too early to tell for me. Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Too early to tell for me. clyde w.   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:52 PM
. * * 5 pm update out Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:39 PM
. * * Re: 5 pm update out Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:42 PM
. * * Re: 5 pm update out Jim M   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:00 PM
. * * Re: 5 pm update out Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:51 PM
. * * Re: 5 pm update out joepub1a   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:20 PM
. * * Re: 5 pm update out doug   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:29 PM
. * * Model bust Bill   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Model bust Bill   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Model bust Bill   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Model bust Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Model bust HanKFranK   Tue Sep 09 2003 06:25 PM
. * * Northerly Turn StPeteGuy   Tue Sep 09 2003 06:06 PM
. * * Gulf - SW of New Orleans StPeteGuy   Tue Sep 09 2003 06:12 PM
. * * European Model Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 06:19 PM
. * * Re: European Model Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 06:27 PM
. * * Not just one thing Bill   Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM
. * * Re: European Model MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 09 2003 06:29 PM
. * * Re: European Model WeatherNLU   Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM
. * * Re: European Model HanKFranK   Tue Sep 09 2003 06:26 PM
. * * Re: 5 pm update out Kevin   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:05 PM
. * * Re: 5 pm update out Brad in Miami   Tue Sep 09 2003 05:03 PM
. * * Re: West turn will begin SOON Steve H.   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:06 PM
. * * Re: West turn will begin SOON Kevin   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:11 PM
. * * Re: model camps Mitch at Work   Tue Sep 09 2003 11:23 AM
. * * Re: model camps jlauderdal   Tue Sep 09 2003 09:59 AM
. * * Realtime Sattelite cajun   Tue Sep 09 2003 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Realtime Sattelite firestar   Tue Sep 09 2003 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Realtime Sattelite joepub1a   Tue Sep 09 2003 10:42 AM
. * * Do the northern islands are out of the woods or not? Cycloneye   Tue Sep 09 2003 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Do the northern islands are out of the woods or not? Tropics Guy   Tue Sep 09 2003 09:46 AM
. * * Westward turn? Alex   Mon Sep 08 2003 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Frank P   Mon Sep 08 2003 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Steve H.   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Cycloneye   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:10 PM
. * * Ridge? BJG   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Tropics Guy   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Storm Cooper   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Tropics Guy   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Brad in Miami   Mon Sep 08 2003 11:06 PM
. * * 11pm advisory HanKFranK   Mon Sep 08 2003 11:40 PM
. * * Re: 11pm advisory MiamiChris   Tue Sep 09 2003 12:00 AM
. * * ? HanKFranK   Tue Sep 09 2003 12:07 AM
. * * Re: ? MiamiChris   Tue Sep 09 2003 12:20 AM
. * * Re: ? BillD   Tue Sep 09 2003 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Floridacane   Tue Sep 09 2003 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Domino   Tue Sep 09 2003 03:57 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Domino   Tue Sep 09 2003 04:48 AM
. * * Re: Isabel to Domino LoisCane   Tue Sep 09 2003 07:44 AM
. * * Re: ? Robert   Tue Sep 09 2003 12:27 AM
. * * Re: ? SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:12 PM
. * * heh HanKFranK   Tue Sep 09 2003 12:12 AM
. * * Fabian surf Robert   Mon Sep 08 2003 11:59 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Jim M   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? HanKFranK   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Frank P   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Westward turn? Mary K.   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:33 PM
. * * Sure is Purdy Beach   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Sure is Purdy Kimmie at work   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:41 PM
. * * Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Bill   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Brad in Miami   Mon Sep 08 2003 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Bill   Mon Sep 08 2003 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel doug   Mon Sep 08 2003 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Brad in Miami   Mon Sep 08 2003 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Ira   Mon Sep 08 2003 04:19 PM
. * * TD 14 is tanking... Bill   Mon Sep 08 2003 04:34 PM
. * * RIP Henri however bobbi   Mon Sep 08 2003 05:55 PM
. * * Re: RIP Henri however HanKFranK   Mon Sep 08 2003 07:12 PM
. * * the WSW bend... LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2003 08:04 PM
. * * Re: the WSW bend... met   Mon Sep 08 2003 08:38 PM
. * * Isabel 57497479   Mon Sep 08 2003 07:33 PM
. * * Re: RIP Henri however javlin   Mon Sep 08 2003 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel joepub1a   Mon Sep 08 2003 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Kimmie at work   Mon Sep 08 2003 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Steve H.   Mon Sep 08 2003 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel jlauderdal   Mon Sep 08 2003 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Brad in Miami   Mon Sep 08 2003 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel javlin   Mon Sep 08 2003 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel Bill   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:52 PM
. * * TD14 and the northward forcast ALex   Mon Sep 08 2003 12:47 PM
. * * 97L Alex   Sun Sep 07 2003 01:47 PM
. * * Re: 97L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2003 03:17 PM
. * * Re: 97L joepub1a   Sun Sep 07 2003 04:32 PM
. * * Re: 97L Bruce   Sun Sep 07 2003 05:02 PM
. * * ISABEL 57497479   Sun Sep 07 2003 05:32 PM
. * * Re: ISABEL Tropics Guy   Sun Sep 07 2003 08:10 PM
. * * Re: ISABEL Kevin   Mon Sep 08 2003 05:44 AM
. * * Re: ISABEL HanKFranK   Sun Sep 07 2003 08:57 PM
. * * Re: ISABEL StPeteGuy   Mon Sep 08 2003 05:49 AM
. * * Re: ISABEL 57497479   Mon Sep 08 2003 06:10 AM
. * * Re: ISABEL JustMe   Mon Sep 08 2003 08:24 AM
. * * A time for compliments... LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:14 AM
. * * Re: A time for compliments... bobbyboi   Mon Sep 08 2003 11:02 AM
. * * nrl gives it away HanKFranK   Mon Sep 08 2003 09:35 AM
. * * GFS just basically redrew Donna... take a look LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:03 AM
. * * but here's a secure thought to keep... LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:11 AM
. * * HERE's the thought LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:12 AM
. * * Re: HERE's the thought Tropics Guy   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:51 AM
. * * Re: HERE's the thought MoparMitch   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:23 PM
. * * interesting storm to compare to... 1919 LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:35 PM
. * * Hey Lois... Steve-unplugged   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:41 PM
. * * here's track.. blend of one that didnt make it and isabel LoisCane   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:39 PM
. * * Fabien Video Feed Steve-unplugged   Mon Sep 08 2003 01:32 PM
. * * Re: HERE's the thought MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:49 AM
. * * Re: ISABEL Kevin   Mon Sep 08 2003 06:22 AM
. * * Re: ISABEL Tropics Guy   Sun Sep 07 2003 11:18 PM
. * * Cat 2....probably really a Cat 3 this morning... Domino   Mon Sep 08 2003 05:39 AM
. * * cruising the Bahamas in a couple weeks... Domino   Sun Sep 07 2003 11:22 PM
. * * Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Jamie   Sun Sep 07 2003 06:53 PM
. * * Isabel's track J.J.   Mon Sep 08 2003 05:53 AM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 07 2003 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone stormchazer   Sun Sep 07 2003 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tropicalwatcher   Sun Sep 07 2003 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2003 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2003 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Bruce   Sun Sep 07 2003 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Bruce   Sun Sep 07 2003 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Bruce   Sun Sep 07 2003 07:09 PM
. * * Re: 97L LoisCane   Sun Sep 07 2003 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Questions about landfalls Mary K.   Sun Sep 07 2003 03:16 PM
. * * Isabel getting stonger Alex   Sat Sep 06 2003 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Isabel getting stonger Tropics Guy   Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Isabel getting stonger met   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Isabel getting stonger HanKFranK   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:42 PM
. * * hank.... frank... had to reread that over and over lois   Sun Sep 07 2003 12:08 AM
. * * Re: hank.... frank... had to reread that over and over stormchazer   Sun Sep 07 2003 12:49 AM
. * * Isabel tornado00   Sun Sep 07 2003 09:03 AM
. * * Re: Isabel joepub1a   Sun Sep 07 2003 09:35 AM
. * * Re:Hurricane Isabel Tropics Guy   Sun Sep 07 2003 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Mary K.   Sun Sep 07 2003 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Bill   Sun Sep 07 2003 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 07 2003 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 07 2003 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Isabel jlauderdal   Sun Sep 07 2003 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Isabel HanKFranK   Sun Sep 07 2003 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Isabel jlauderdal   Sun Sep 07 2003 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Isabel squirralee   Sun Sep 07 2003 11:56 AM
. * * Fabian, Henri & Isabel WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Fabian, Henri & Isabel islander   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:46 PM
. * * LOL Robert   Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM
. * * Re: LOL HanKFranK   Mon Sep 08 2003 10:12 AM
. * * 1935 labor day hurricane Robert   Mon Sep 08 2003 11:47 AM
. * * sattelite images and the models Alex   Sat Sep 06 2003 08:06 PM
. * * Re: sattelite images and the models joepub1a   Sat Sep 06 2003 08:29 PM
. * * oh love the i storm lois   Sat Sep 06 2003 09:21 PM
. * * NHC Discontinuity Bill   Sat Sep 06 2003 07:30 PM
. * * Re: NHC Discontinuity joepub1a   Sat Sep 06 2003 08:02 PM
. * * Re: NHC Discontinuity stormchazer   Sat Sep 06 2003 09:25 PM
. * * Hurricane names Robert   Sat Sep 06 2003 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane names Tropics Guy   Sat Sep 06 2003 10:39 PM
. * * Titles Robert   Sat Sep 06 2003 10:21 PM
. * * Re: NHC Discontinuity BillD   Sat Sep 06 2003 07:59 PM
. * * They dont call it the peak of the season for nothing Alex   Sat Sep 06 2003 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:52 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West scottsvb1   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West joepub1a   Sat Sep 06 2003 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West joepub1a   Sat Sep 06 2003 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Bill   Sat Sep 06 2003 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Cycloneye   Sat Sep 06 2003 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West IsabellaCane   Sat Sep 06 2003 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West islander   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:59 AM
. * * Henri overhead Alan   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Henri overhead Steve H.   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West Steve H.   Sat Sep 06 2003 11:17 AM

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