the 11pm discussion goes in to some of the things i was thinking about.. one point it negates is the timing on isabel hitting fabians sst wake... sooner than i'd guessed. the sw bias on some of the globals is explained.. attributed to the upper low following the storm. thats the critical interaction in the next couple of days to look for.. if the storm starts edging south of west then we've got an imminent problem for the islands. nhc is careful to add the turn back to the wnw at the end of every forecast track.. though the reasoning isnt explained. i suppose its based on a suspicion of a ridge weakness theyre not ready to take to court. most bothersome model has been the ecmwf.. tomorrow evening when the 12z runs for september 9th are posted, i'd start worrying if the track keeps going into the bahamas. note that gfs is going back and forth, but at least two runs have shown isabel heading north to new england/nova scotia. more give the familiar stop at the turks and caicos-bermuda-cape race solution... but thats gfs for ya.
td 14 looked better last night before it was classified. the cat 1 hurricane forecast is replaced by a weak t.s. forecast.. i give it 40% at surviving right now. juan will have to wait.
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