lol about "jumping all over" the hard left statement Mitch -- I don't think anyone intended to be mean-spirited or anything like that. At least I hope not. And of course you're correct that there was a wobble north.
And yes, anyy wobble, even a couple tenths of a degree, could benefit the islands. My only point was that I definitely wouldn't get too excited about such a small difference from the NHC's (or model guidance's) forecast track at this point, because it isn't far off.
Below is the NHC's take on the ULL and Isabel in the 205 discussion. Nothing new, but still interesting:
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE GLFMEX/WRN CARIBBEAN
AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN ATLC ALONG 25N77W 30N70W. THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE FEATURE...HOWEVER...IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT IS CENTERED 150 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N61W
AND IS MOVING WWD AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP. THE LOW IS MOVING QUICK
ENOUGH WWD THAT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE DIRECT INFLUENCE TO
HURRICANE ISABEL...ALTHOUGH ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT WILL
INDIRECTLY BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL ATLC THAT MAY STEER THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE WWD TRACK. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
W/NW OVER THE NEXT 72 HRS AND WILL BE POSITIONED JUST NE OF THE
BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRIDAY.
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE CNTRL ATLC IS HURRICANE ISABEL. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE STORM APPEARS LESS THAN IDEAL
BUT ISABEL IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND DOES NOT SEEM
NEGATIVELY AFFECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 20N40W WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NWWD OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS SUCH...ELY
FLOW OVER ISABEL HAS OBSCURED THE EYE AT TIMES WITH CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM EYEWALL TSTMS. THE ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE IS IN AN
ADVANTAGEOUS POSITION BY PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW JET OUT
OF THE N SEMICIRCLE AND MAINTAINING BENEFICIAL UPPER LEVEL
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