THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A PROFOUND LEFT-OF-TRACK BIAS... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. THEREFORE...IT IS TIME TO BAIL OUT ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO THE MORE NORTHERN GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS...BUT IT WAS NOT SHIFTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE UKMET SOLUTION.
I want everybody to know that if she turns W, than WSW like the models still say, I will be on the front lines of the masses demanding that the NHC say their sorry to all the models who just got insulted. Taking the side of the GFDL!!! Is there nowhere in the world where it is still safe to lean to the left a little bit???
THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAAST U.S. AND ERODES THE RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL.
Their begining a long term guessing game now. In the models that feature still doen't pull Isa north, it just slows down some. It might be a very slow turn, but still way out at the edge that they can see.
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