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Last advisory issued for Isaias as it moves over Quebec. Other than 94L (which looks like it won't develop) Atlantic is quiet for a bit.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 2 (Isaias) , Major: 666 (Michael) Florida - Any: 666 (Michael) Major: 666 (Michael)

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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Bill
Unregistered

Not just one thing
Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM

That's makes me say fish---it is the cumulation of things. The main thing is, I am an empiricist---observation of what is REALLY happening usually tends to overrule theoretical projections.

The storm is deviating from the 'model consensus" and NHC official track.

The upper low is not weakening, and is not moving as fast as they say out of the way.

Historically, NHC overplays upper low dissipation/movement.

Other factors, too lengthy to go in to here---and, shall we say--intuition.

Result---my feeling, growing over time- that Isabel is a fish---will not even see the Bahamas. Not a conviction yet, but give it 24 hrs and ask me again

IHS,

Bill

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Isabel Forms and Heads West	Ed Dunham	Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM
NEW Melbourne Discussion	clyde w.	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:35 PM
Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion	Beach	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:31 PM
Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion	Jamie	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:36 PM
Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion	Beach	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:08 PM
Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion	clyde w.	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:46 PM
Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion	Kevin	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:16 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	LadyStorm	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:49 AM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	MoparMitch	Tue Sep 09 2003 01:24 PM
wobbles north?	LoisCane	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:12 PM
Re: wobbles north?	Bill	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:47 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 01:40 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Frank P	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:02 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Tropics Guy	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:15 PM
wobbles all the time	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:30 PM
Re: wobbles all the time	zoidy	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:50 PM
major canes	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:57 PM
Re: major canes	zoidy	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:07 PM
Re: wobbles all the time	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:56 PM
Re: wobbles all the time	zoidy	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:03 PM
Tampa 'Canes	StPeteGuy	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:52 PM
Re: wobbles all the time	Frank P	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:16 PM
Re: wobbles all the time	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:00 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Tropics Guy	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:29 PM
It is moving more north than predicted	Cycloneye	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:26 PM
Re: It is moving more north than predicted	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:38 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Bill	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:11 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	MoparMitch	Tue Sep 09 2003 01:47 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	javlin	Tue Sep 09 2003 07:28 AM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	spky2001	Tue Sep 09 2003 08:33 AM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 08:56 AM
model camps	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 09 2003 09:50 AM
Re: model camps	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 09 2003 09:51 AM
Re: model camps	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 10:40 AM
Re: model camps	jlauderdal	Tue Sep 09 2003 10:48 AM
Re: model camps	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 10:53 AM
Re: model camps	Tgunn	Tue Sep 09 2003 11:03 AM
Re: model camps	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 11:09 AM
Re: model camps	islander	Tue Sep 09 2003 12:37 PM
Re: model camps	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 12:54 PM
Re: model camps	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 01:01 PM
Re: model camps	Joe1	Tue Sep 09 2003 11:52 AM
Re: model camps	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 12:36 PM
Re: model camps	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:04 PM
Re: model camps	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:51 PM
West turn will begin SOON	Kevin	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:00 PM
Re: West turn will begin SOON	Lisa NC	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:17 PM
Re: West turn will begin SOON	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:26 PM
Re: West turn will begin SOON	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:27 PM
Re: West turn will begin SOON	hypercane	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:11 PM
Re: Hypercane	Kevin	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:25 PM
Re: Hypercane	hypercane	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:30 PM
Too early to tell for me.	Justin in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:48 PM
Re: Too early to tell for me.	clyde w.	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:52 PM
5 pm update out	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:39 PM
Re: 5 pm update out	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:42 PM
Re: 5 pm update out	Jim M	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:00 PM
Re: 5 pm update out	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:51 PM
Re: 5 pm update out	joepub1a	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:20 PM
Re: 5 pm update out	doug	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:29 PM
Model bust	Bill	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:24 PM
Re: Model bust	Bill	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:25 PM
Re: Model bust	Bill	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:26 PM
Re: Model bust	Justin in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:53 PM
Re: Model bust	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 09 2003 06:25 PM
Northerly Turn	StPeteGuy	Tue Sep 09 2003 06:06 PM
Gulf - SW of New Orleans	StPeteGuy	Tue Sep 09 2003 06:12 PM
European Model	Justin in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 06:19 PM
Re: European Model	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 06:27 PM
Not just one thing	Bill	Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM
Re: European Model	MikeC	Tue Sep 09 2003 06:29 PM
Re: European Model	WeatherNLU	Tue Sep 09 2003 07:34 PM
Re: European Model	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 09 2003 06:26 PM
Re: 5 pm update out	Kevin	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:05 PM
Re: 5 pm update out	Brad in Miami	Tue Sep 09 2003 05:03 PM
Re: West turn will begin SOON	Steve H.	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:06 PM
Re: West turn will begin SOON	Kevin	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:11 PM
Re: model camps	Mitch at Work	Tue Sep 09 2003 11:23 AM
Re: model camps	jlauderdal	Tue Sep 09 2003 09:59 AM
Realtime Sattelite	cajun	Tue Sep 09 2003 10:33 AM
Re: Realtime Sattelite	firestar	Tue Sep 09 2003 10:51 AM
Re: Realtime Sattelite	joepub1a	Tue Sep 09 2003 10:42 AM
Do the northern islands are out of the woods or not?	Cycloneye	Tue Sep 09 2003 09:39 AM
Re: Do the northern islands are out of the woods or not?	Tropics Guy	Tue Sep 09 2003 09:46 AM
Westward turn?	Alex	Mon Sep 08 2003 08:09 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Frank P	Mon Sep 08 2003 08:40 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Steve H.	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:03 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Cycloneye	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:10 PM
Ridge?	BJG	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:31 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Tropics Guy	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:27 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Storm Cooper	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:43 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Tropics Guy	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:35 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Brad in Miami	Mon Sep 08 2003 11:06 PM
11pm advisory	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 08 2003 11:40 PM
Re: 11pm advisory	MiamiChris	Tue Sep 09 2003 12:00 AM
?	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 09 2003 12:07 AM
Re: ?	MiamiChris	Tue Sep 09 2003 12:20 AM
Re: ?	BillD	Tue Sep 09 2003 01:02 AM
Re: Isabel	Floridacane	Tue Sep 09 2003 02:30 AM
Re: Isabel	Domino	Tue Sep 09 2003 03:57 AM
Re: Isabel	Domino	Tue Sep 09 2003 04:48 AM
Re: Isabel to Domino	LoisCane	Tue Sep 09 2003 07:44 AM
Re: ?	Robert	Tue Sep 09 2003 12:27 AM
Re: ?	SandiaFlower	Thu Sep 11 2003 04:12 PM
heh	HanKFranK	Tue Sep 09 2003 12:12 AM
Fabian surf	Robert	Mon Sep 08 2003 11:59 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Jim M	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM
Re: Westward turn?	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:29 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Frank P	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:37 PM
Re: Westward turn?	Mary K.	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:33 PM
Sure is Purdy	Beach	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:01 PM
Re: Sure is Purdy	Kimmie at work	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:41 PM
Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Bill	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:49 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Brad in Miami	Mon Sep 08 2003 02:13 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Bill	Mon Sep 08 2003 02:40 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	doug	Mon Sep 08 2003 03:25 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Brad in Miami	Mon Sep 08 2003 03:31 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Ira	Mon Sep 08 2003 04:19 PM
TD 14 is tanking...	Bill	Mon Sep 08 2003 04:34 PM
RIP Henri however	bobbi	Mon Sep 08 2003 05:55 PM
Re: RIP Henri however	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 08 2003 07:12 PM
the WSW bend...	LoisCane	Mon Sep 08 2003 08:04 PM
Re: the WSW bend...	met	Mon Sep 08 2003 08:38 PM
Isabel	57497479	Mon Sep 08 2003 07:33 PM
Re: RIP Henri however	javlin	Mon Sep 08 2003 07:22 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	joepub1a	Mon Sep 08 2003 03:50 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Kimmie at work	Mon Sep 08 2003 03:57 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Steve H.	Mon Sep 08 2003 04:15 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	jlauderdal	Mon Sep 08 2003 04:17 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Brad in Miami	Mon Sep 08 2003 02:27 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	javlin	Mon Sep 08 2003 02:08 PM
Re: Upper Low/trof ahead of Isabel	Bill	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:52 PM
TD14 and the northward forcast	ALex	Mon Sep 08 2003 12:47 PM
97L	Alex	Sun Sep 07 2003 01:47 PM
Re: 97L	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 07 2003 03:17 PM
Re: 97L	joepub1a	Sun Sep 07 2003 04:32 PM
Re: 97L	Bruce	Sun Sep 07 2003 05:02 PM
ISABEL	57497479	Sun Sep 07 2003 05:32 PM
Re: ISABEL	Tropics Guy	Sun Sep 07 2003 08:10 PM
Re: ISABEL	Kevin	Mon Sep 08 2003 05:44 AM
Re: ISABEL	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 07 2003 08:57 PM
Re: ISABEL	StPeteGuy	Mon Sep 08 2003 05:49 AM
Re: ISABEL	57497479	Mon Sep 08 2003 06:10 AM
Re: ISABEL	JustMe	Mon Sep 08 2003 08:24 AM
A time for compliments...	LoisCane	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:14 AM
Re: A time for compliments...	bobbyboi	Mon Sep 08 2003 11:02 AM
nrl gives it away	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 08 2003 09:35 AM
GFS just basically redrew Donna... take a look	LoisCane	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:03 AM
but here's a secure thought to keep...	LoisCane	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:11 AM
HERE's the thought	LoisCane	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:12 AM
Re: HERE's the thought	Tropics Guy	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:51 AM
Re: HERE's the thought	MoparMitch	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:23 PM
interesting storm to compare to... 1919	LoisCane	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:35 PM
Hey Lois...	Steve-unplugged	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:41 PM
here's track.. blend of one that didnt make it and isabel	LoisCane	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:39 PM
Fabien Video Feed	Steve-unplugged	Mon Sep 08 2003 01:32 PM
Re: HERE's the thought	MikeC	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:49 AM
Re: ISABEL	Kevin	Mon Sep 08 2003 06:22 AM
Re: ISABEL	Tropics Guy	Sun Sep 07 2003 11:18 PM
Cat 2....probably really a Cat 3 this morning...	Domino	Mon Sep 08 2003 05:39 AM
cruising the Bahamas in a couple weeks...	Domino	Sun Sep 07 2003 11:22 PM
Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	Jamie	Sun Sep 07 2003 06:53 PM
Isabel's track	J.J.	Mon Sep 08 2003 05:53 AM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	Storm Cooper	Sun Sep 07 2003 07:36 PM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	stormchazer	Sun Sep 07 2003 07:47 PM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	Tropicalwatcher	Sun Sep 07 2003 08:03 PM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 07 2003 08:55 PM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 07 2003 07:23 PM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	Bruce	Sun Sep 07 2003 07:04 PM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	Bruce	Sun Sep 07 2003 07:06 PM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	SandiaFlower	Thu Sep 11 2003 03:59 PM
Re: Strongest Atlantic Tropical Cyclone	Bruce	Sun Sep 07 2003 07:09 PM
Re: 97L	LoisCane	Sun Sep 07 2003 02:19 PM
Re: Questions about landfalls	Mary K.	Sun Sep 07 2003 03:16 PM
Isabel getting stonger	Alex	Sat Sep 06 2003 10:40 PM
Re: Isabel getting stonger	Tropics Guy	Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM
Re: Isabel getting stonger	met	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:07 PM
Re: Isabel getting stonger	HanKFranK	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:42 PM
hank.... frank... had to reread that over and over	lois	Sun Sep 07 2003 12:08 AM
Re: hank.... frank... had to reread that over and over	stormchazer	Sun Sep 07 2003 12:49 AM
Isabel	tornado00	Sun Sep 07 2003 09:03 AM
Re: Isabel	joepub1a	Sun Sep 07 2003 09:35 AM
Re:Hurricane Isabel	Tropics Guy	Sun Sep 07 2003 10:58 AM
Re: Isabel	Mary K.	Sun Sep 07 2003 10:30 AM
Re: Isabel	Bill	Sun Sep 07 2003 12:37 PM
Re: Isabel	Storm Cooper	Sun Sep 07 2003 12:44 PM
Re: Isabel	Ed Dunham	Sun Sep 07 2003 12:30 PM
Re: Isabel	jlauderdal	Sun Sep 07 2003 11:35 AM
Re: Isabel	HanKFranK	Sun Sep 07 2003 12:00 PM
Re: Isabel	jlauderdal	Sun Sep 07 2003 12:45 PM
Re: Isabel	squirralee	Sun Sep 07 2003 11:56 AM
Fabian, Henri & Isabel	WXMAN RICHIE	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:34 PM
Re: Fabian, Henri & Isabel	islander	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:46 PM
LOL	Robert	Sat Sep 06 2003 10:55 PM
Re: LOL	HanKFranK	Mon Sep 08 2003 10:12 AM
1935 labor day hurricane	Robert	Mon Sep 08 2003 11:47 AM
sattelite images and the models	Alex	Sat Sep 06 2003 08:06 PM
Re: sattelite images and the models	joepub1a	Sat Sep 06 2003 08:29 PM
oh love the i storm	lois	Sat Sep 06 2003 09:21 PM
NHC Discontinuity	Bill	Sat Sep 06 2003 07:30 PM
Re: NHC Discontinuity	joepub1a	Sat Sep 06 2003 08:02 PM
Re: NHC Discontinuity	stormchazer	Sat Sep 06 2003 09:25 PM
Hurricane names	Robert	Sat Sep 06 2003 10:18 PM
Re: Hurricane names	Tropics Guy	Sat Sep 06 2003 10:39 PM
Titles	Robert	Sat Sep 06 2003 10:21 PM
Re: NHC Discontinuity	BillD	Sat Sep 06 2003 07:59 PM
They dont call it the peak of the season for nothing	Alex	Sat Sep 06 2003 02:12 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Ed Dunham	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:52 AM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	scottsvb1	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:25 AM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	joepub1a	Sat Sep 06 2003 04:33 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	joepub1a	Sat Sep 06 2003 04:41 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Bill	Sat Sep 06 2003 12:54 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Cycloneye	Sat Sep 06 2003 12:02 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	IsabellaCane	Sat Sep 06 2003 12:43 PM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	islander	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:59 AM
Henri overhead	Alan	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:20 AM
Re: Henri overhead	Steve H.	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:43 AM
Re: Isabel Forms and Heads West	Steve H.	Sat Sep 06 2003 11:17 AM

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