Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Fri Sep 26 2003 08:54 PM
Update - Saturday Evening
Hurricane Juan continues to look more impressive and I would think that the sustained winds are now approaching 80 knots. The 21Z advisory will probably nudge the forecast track a little to the west, which as Steve has noted, would create a significant problem for the city of Halifax, Nova Scotia. A strong storm surge up the Bay would create a serious flooding problem in that city tomorrow evening.
The westerly shear over TD 16 has relaxed a little and convection has built back over the center - which had been exposed earlier today. The 21Z NHC advisory will classify the system as Tropical Storm Kate with no significant changes in the forecast track - at least NHC was willing to make a quick adjustment to their intensity outlook for this system.
Invest 90L is still disorganized, but the pressure in the area has been falling at about one millibar every 6 hours. The tropical models have been very consistent in developing this tropical wave, with a slight westward adjustment on each run over the past 24 hours. If TD 17 develops near Cozumel, the folks in central and southern Florida need to really monitor what will likely become Tropical Storm Larry. Assuming development, it looks like landfall would be early Wednesday. If the Depression forms, I'll post more on this one in the Storm Forum.
Lots of areas of activity in the basin and its all heading north - or soon will be. Hurricane Juan is well east northeast of Bermuda and is heading north at 8-10 knots. Juan looks more tropical this evening than it has in the past couple of days. TD 15/Juan had a lot of subtropical characteristics when it started, but a separate and distinct core of convection has developed around the center this afternoon. Slight intensification in the next 18 hours as he heads north toward Nova Scotia with a gradual increase in forward speed.
TD 16 has been slow to evolve, but it is getting there and should become Tropical Storm Kate on Saturday. Movement is to the northwest, maybe even north northwest and a more northerly and eventually northeasterly trend is likely for this system.
Invest 90L in the Caribbean Sea with a mid-level circulation near 17.5N 83W at 27/00Z. Convection has been on the wane this evening, but the structure of the system has actually slowly improved. The mid-level center has been drifting to the north - perhaps just west of due north. If the system develops over the weekend (and it has a good chance - could be a future Larry), a slow curve NW-N-NE seems likely - possible problem for Florida, but it still has a long way to go in terms of development.
Weak non-tropical low off the Florida east coast could eventually do something, but the chances are rather low. GOM development seems less likely if the Caribbean system starts to get its act together. Lots of activity to watch and track this weekend.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 27 2003 04:46 PM)