Lastest Discussion is up.. Weatherunderground appears to be having issues so I will post it here..
** WTNT41 KNHC 011445 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY... FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 54207
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center