Here's a detailed discussion about the possibility of a track across FL into the GOM. I don't know anything about the folks who produced this, but it certainly makes for an interesting read. Maybe Jason could comment on it?
The latest signs are not promising at all. Some of the models, like the GFS and CMC are indicating a turn too far to the north, without any support from the 500mb vorticity fields. There are no ML troughs or lows that could turn the system. The UKMET responds to this condition by turning the storm to the west and into the Gulf of Mexico as does NASA and NOGAPS. Second, the trough over Louisiana is farther north than yesterday. These two scenarios are quite grim for Florida. However, what the models are in agreement with and are in touch with reality is that there will be somewhat of a WNW motion due to the weak upper trough. In short, there does not appear to be anything to spar Florida form a landfall. Track guidance is mostly based upon the GFS and the 6Z GFS is unrealistic indicating a SC landfall. While the landfall location is similar near the Palm Beach area although a few tenths to the south of 0900 UTC, the major change is that this forecast now brings the storm into the Gulf of Mexico and indicates a threat to the Florida Panhandle at the end of the period.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 63500
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center