I am still sure it will turn, but I am unsure how close it will be to the coast
several of the *reliable* models are taking it more to the north--AVN takes it VERY close to Cape Canaveral--about 30-40 miles, but offshore; the CMC takes it well offshore, then turns it back to the west towards Daytona Beach, then about 20 miles offshore, curves it up into Georgia; GFDL takes it NW, getting closer to the coast as it moves north, and taking it inland into N Florida or Georgia
more reason to doubt the NHC forecast is that Frances appears again to be weakening--the eye is much more ragged and appears to have collapsed overnight, much like Isabel last year before the weakening trend; as for more evidence supporting a northward turn is that it is elongating towards the NNW and the western edge of the outflow has flattened and is now shooting straight north, and the ULL is still over the Bahamas showing little or no movement now Frances also, it does look like Frances has taken a slight NW jog in the last hour
an odd contrast though is that the NOGAPS takes it NW, then turns it W right into West Palm Beach and up the west coast
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