NHC uses a consensus of their most reliable model data after taking all observational and synoptic data into account. This is almost beginning to sound like a discussion about where people "wish" it to go.
The big question I can't answer is: If and when the authorities tell people to evacuate, where do they advise them to go? We all know how many people evacuated Tampa/St. Pete only to end up in the path of the storm. Bottom line is to be prepared for days and possibly weeks w/o electricity.
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