Just strictly my opinion, but it seems that the AVN has had a leftward bias in this season, and others. Living in NJ, it seems the tropical systems that have affected us this year ended up farther east than progged. Of course, the trend is your friend, but I would note that the AVN was also the first model to show a farther right track the other day. Then there's the matter of persistence forecasting. It seems the favored track this year is an east coast track (give or take). While this doesn't mean that it will happen again, I respect it. My personal opinion is that the actual track could end up to the right of where it is now. FWIW, the ETA seems to be all over the place. You being in Va., I am sure you don't even want to see drizzle. The slowing or stalling is going to make it an even tougher forecast. The best hope there is that the interaction of its large circulation with land will weaken it, but the moisture will still be there.
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