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Tolyl weakening, moving out. Gulf has too much shear for development. Watching West Caribbean next.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Dorian) , Major: 632 (Michael) Florida - Any: 632 (Michael) Major: 632 (Michael)
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fred08
Unregistered




Re: 5PM Update
      Wed Sep 01 2004 05:03 PM

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST
THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL
CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD
EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE
VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS
OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT
THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE
FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

could there be a north track?

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Frances in the Morning MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 01 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning mrorlmagik   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning BobVee   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Lindsey   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Roberta   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Roberta   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:24 PM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re: recon TROY   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:49 PM
. * * Re: recon mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Bahamas under the gun for a 36 hour nightmare, starting now rickonboat   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: recon now 3 planes out mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: recon HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: recon Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Palm Beach County Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Palm Beach County Pam in Vero   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:29 PM
. * * Re: fla john03   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:16 PM
. * * Florida Hurricane Storm Surge Atlas LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Re: recon wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Floridacane   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ormond Suzie   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning anany   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning *DELETED* alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:57 PM
. * * Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL John C   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:07 PM
. * * Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:21 PM
. * * Re:Storm Surge Brevard County FL Redbird   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:26 PM
. * * Orange, Volusia, Seminole Counties Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Roberta Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning fredwx   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ed geary   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning oscar   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:47 AM
. * * Eye? palmetto   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Eye? zacros   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Eye? John G.   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Eye? Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning trinibaje   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Cathy   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning AmateurJohn   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Dani   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning AmateurJohn   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Dani   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning joepub1   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Dani   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning eligrace   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:43 AM
. * * I don't see it either Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:50 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:10 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:19 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank GaryC   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Compass degrees intro 101 Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:42 AM
. * * Miami bound, maybe rickonboat   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Miami bound, maybe kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re: I agree on one point Frank javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning FlaRebel   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning TIGER   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning cjzydeco   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:23 AM
. * * Re: A98E model-backtrack danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:38 AM
. * * Re: A98E model-backtrack Fingers1116   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:47 AM
. * * Re: A98E model-backtrack Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:16 AM
. * * Re: A98E model-backtrack Fingers1116   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:34 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM doug   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:08 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 09:20 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM doug   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:39 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:00 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:03 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:08 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:12 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:15 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:23 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:47 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Rabbit   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:03 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM meto   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM meto   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Wxwatcher2   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM GaryC   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:14 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM SirCane   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Rabbit   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:17 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:21 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM RevUp   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Controlled Chaos rmbjoe1954   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Controlled Chaos Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Controlled Chaos andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:45 PM
. * * Controlled Chaos rmbjoe1954   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Rabbit   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM doug   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:41 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Chad   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:48 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Frances' Eye Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Frances' Eye scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Yo Scott Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM lis   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:48 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:55 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Brad   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:08 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Rabbit   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM SC Bill   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:27 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM raeolight   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Kal   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:31 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:30 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM MIAMIFL   Wed Sep 01 2004 12:12 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Kal   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:45 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:26 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:08 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM AphCane04   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:46 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM obshaz   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:52 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM obshaz   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:31 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Steve hirschb.   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM javlin   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:01 PM
. * * General Thoughts... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:16 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:22 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... wxman007   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... fred08   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM
. * * 5PM Update Doombot!   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Ed in Va   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:50 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update AphCane04   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:58 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:53 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update cwmajors   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update fred08   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:03 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update SoonerShawn   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:10 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update RockledgeRick   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update kelcot   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:31 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Bev   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:16 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 05:06 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update HCW   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update BillD at work   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:31 PM
. * * Re: General Thoughts... Shawn W.   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Lee County - Cape Coral? Martha   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Palm Beach County WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Lee County - Cape Coral? Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:48 PM
. * * Coordinate locator SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Coordinate locator SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:01 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM AgentB   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: not much different mikeG   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:37 PM
. * * Re: not much different andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:10 PM
. * * Re: not much different AgentB   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: not much different andy1tom   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:33 PM
. * * Re: not much different jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Northward turn? LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? alan   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? jth   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:57 PM
. * * Miami bound babeeee rickonboat   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? Bloodstar   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Northward turn? BillD at work   Wed Sep 01 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 03:36 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM scottsvb1   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:37 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:22 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM schmoo   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:04 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:25 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:29 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM Clark   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:40 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM AgentB   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re:Latest Wind Swath SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:45 AM
. * * betting against climo and history? bobbi   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:44 AM
. * * Re:Frances and GOM LI Phil   Wed Sep 01 2004 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Jeffmidtown   Wed Sep 01 2004 07:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning rmbjoe1954   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ricreig   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Kroemerk   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning C.J.inNaples   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Ed in Va   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning anonymous   Wed Sep 01 2004 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning raeolight   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Colleen A.   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning rjp   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning Frank P   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning raeolight   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Frances In the Morning MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 01 2004 01:10 PM

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