GFS and GFDL have been reliable all year, but have been out to lunch so far with this system. Frances has been consistently left of those two tracks. Only time will tell, but the last frame on the sat indicates that the WNW motion has continued. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on those two models, but would do as they have done in this case and use the consensus approach until they all come in to line. Maybe the next run of the models will give us a better idea. Weren't there numerous Upper air recons in there this afternoon?
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