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#Melissa forward speed increasing as it tracks northeast set for several more landfalls this week as it eventually heads out to sea
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 386 (Milton) , Major: 386 (Milton) Florida - Any: 386 (Milton) Major: 386 (Milton)
Hur Melissa
ADV#38A 8:00 pm EDT
31.3N 68.9W
Wind: 105MPH
Pres: 970mb
Moving:
Ne at 32 mph
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
blink
      Thu Sep 02 2004 03:03 PM

frances inner core looks like utter crap early this afternoon. that pressure jump to 949 mb is probably legit weakening.. i don't know what the hell is causing it, but the eye has filled and the eyewall has become very asymmetric. the environment around the storm remains on the dry side.. those model predictions of a moister environment haven't verified yet.. this probably is a shot of subsidence acting to destabilize the inner core. on top of that the storm has wobbled well right of the forecast track... it is going RIGHT of san salvador, not left as the forecast track has been pegging it for the last few advisories.
let me rephrase that, it is going OVER san salvador.. the western eye at least
reading back through the forum i saw comments on abaco.. what the storm is doing as it nears the vicinity. if it's going to the palm beach area, it has to stay well left of abaco.. left and close to abaco is a space coast problem.. if it goes over it's a ne fl/s ga problem.. if it goes right it's ga/sc.
nah, the door isnt closed for further north just yet.
elsewhere in the basin... 97L has its convection all sheared to the north now. very well defined low level center, which has been intermittently under strong convection for days, which has arguably been a weak tropical storm, slowed and moving wnw near 19/41. it will either continue west as a weak surface system and probably die, or recurve into an upper trough near 45w and strengthen some. little chance to do anything significant, either way.
98L cruising west at low latitude. it has a d1.5 as of the last rating, which sometimes gets a system classified. gfs keeps it weak and west (into the caribbean by the middle of next week).. other globals tending to draw it wnw. slight chance it is t.d. 9 at 5 pm, more likely at 11 or later. this system has a good chance to be ivan over the weekend.
nothing else imminent or looking terribly spooky. just a couple of invests and a very strong hurricane in the bahamas.
HF 1903z02september

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 02 2004 03:18 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* It Shifts Left MikeCAdministrator Thu Sep 02 2004 03:03 PM
. * * From NWS Melbourne clyde w.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:14 PM
. * * Re: From NWS Melbourne Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:24 PM
. * * Re: From NWS Melbourne clyde w.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:30 PM
. * * 5pm just in HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: 5pm just in RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:37 PM
. * * looks nice in boca Domino   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: From NWS Melbourne HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left bob07   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 PM
. * * blink HanKFranK   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:03 PM
. * * Re: blink jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:53 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Rabbit   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Mark Bendiksen   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:56 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:04 PM
. * * Thoughts.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:13 PM
. * * question from Gainesville guestfromGville   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:49 PM
. * * Re: question from Gainesville wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:55 PM
. * * Re: question from Gainesville Terry51   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:21 PM
. * * Re: question from Gainesville Terry Johnson   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:21 PM
. * * SWIMMING POOL SCREEN CAGES Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:59 PM
. * * Shelters safe or leave completely? ShadowWind   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Shelters safe or leave completely? RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn ticka1   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn MrSpock   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:33 PM
. * * MLB AFD wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: MLB AFD clyde w.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:58 PM
. * * Re: MLB AFD wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:59 PM
. * * Re: MLB AFD bmw   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Frances - did she make the turn Ronn   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: SWIMMING POOL SCREEN CAGES Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Thoughts.... Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:47 PM
. * * Cape Coral Wendell   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:24 PM
. * * Interesting coincidences.... Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:57 PM
. * * Pinpoint Weather.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:47 PM
. * * Strom Surge Map for Space Coast Rubber Ducky   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Interesting discussion from NWS MLB Jamiewx   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... UPPERLEVEL WINDS   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Orlando, FL   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:03 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Flood Watches Extended in Florida Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Pinpoint Weather.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:44 PM
. * * Max Mayfield Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Cape Coral DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:32 PM
. * * Scary2 LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:23 PM
. * * New Vortex... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:20 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:50 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:00 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:22 PM
. * * Models SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:56 PM
. * * P.S. SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Scary... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Scary... jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Scary... alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Scary... LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Scary... SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Scary... alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 03:07 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left bob07   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left J Thomas   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left pjoo   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 PM
. * * Airport Ops at Orlando Fredric   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:40 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:38 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:42 PM
. * * Why would it stall alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCRay   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:35 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left crm9501   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:22 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:23 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:32 PM
. * * Thanks, Mike LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike DJINFLA   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike eligrace   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:48 PM
. * * Re: JB *Teal61   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:45 PM
. * * OK.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:50 PM
. * * Re: OK.... SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:57 PM
. * * Re: OK.... wxman007   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: OK.... doug   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Re: OK.... MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 PM
. * * Eye Replacing SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:30 PM
. * * Dvorak's LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike Bloodstar   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:42 PM
. * * Re: traffic fred08   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Palm Beach County WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:45 PM
. * * Re: eywall john03   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Palm Beach County alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Palm Beach County andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Palm Beach County SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:10 PM
. * * Re: turning north, please please please Rasvar   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Latest thoughts WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna Bev   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna Londovir   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna Artsy Fartsy   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:23 PM
. * * Update LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Update SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:14 PM
. * * Stuart, fl Robert   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Stuart, fl CASps   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Floyd/Andrew/Frances overlay Artsy Fartsy   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Floyd/Andrew/Frances overlay MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Thanks, Mike alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:41 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left nervous/curious   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:17 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Sadie   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:10 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left kelcot   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:14 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Kruz   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:21 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:24 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left GulfSide   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:51 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left AgentB   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:50 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left kelcot   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left kelcot   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left andy1tom   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:13 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left kelcot   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:53 PM
. * * Frances, Floyd and Andrew LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Frances, Floyd and Andrew SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 02:58 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left alan   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:42 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Wxwatcher2   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:29 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left UGAdawgz   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:43 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left TAZMAN   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:35 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:24 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left ticka1   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:20 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Terra D   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:39 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Ed G   Thu Sep 02 2004 11:52 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:10 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:16 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left eligrace   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Miami Beach told to evacuate Jeffmidtown   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left ned1316   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:06 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left JimAnderson   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:19 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left HCW   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:18 AM
. * * Various Thoughts Colleen A.   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:00 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left TAZMAN   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:19 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left DroopGB31   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:37 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:00 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:45 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left deborah2002   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:04 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:27 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left dzinermw   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:05 AM
. * * my thoughts and questions LoisCane   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:30 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions Chelsie   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:47 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions Proflhb   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:32 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions Chelsie   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:34 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions c ray   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:45 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:51 AM
. * * Re: my thoughts and questions c ray   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Jacksonville Update Proflhb   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:40 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left storm1   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:20 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:32 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Felix   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:05 AM
. * * Advice from Punta Gorda Proflhb   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left mojorox   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:39 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:42 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left cooljunkie   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:10 AM
. * * to high rise junkie lois   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 PM
. * * Re: to high rise junkie MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:13 PM
. * * Charley Lessons... the hard way. Bev   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:36 PM
. * * Yikes! LI Phil   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Yikes! Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Yikes! doug   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way. RAD,not logged   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way. alicia   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way. lilyv   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:02 PM
. * * NW all the way! SoonerShawn   Thu Sep 02 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:16 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:21 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left trinibaje   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:26 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Ed in Va   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:28 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left luki   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:15 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Frank P   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:59 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left ticka1   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:25 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Bocagirl   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:23 AM
. * * Hobson's Choice in coastal Brevard RubberDucky   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:09 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:38 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Mousie5   Thu Sep 02 2004 09:51 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left skippy1   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:22 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:25 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left skippy1   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:29 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left scottsvb1   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:27 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:25 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left lis   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:43 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left NLBJAX   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:07 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left jth   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:12 PM
. * * News from Jacksonville Proflhb   Thu Sep 02 2004 10:48 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Humanriff   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:05 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left crm9501   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:48 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left skippy1   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:12 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Fingers1116   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:59 AM
. * * decision day... nickyd   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:10 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left anony   Thu Sep 02 2004 07:41 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left TAZMAN   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:43 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left LisaP   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:40 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Cocoa Beach   Thu Sep 02 2004 12:44 PM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Ricreig   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:04 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left RevUp   Thu Sep 02 2004 08:27 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:57 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Rmh   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:51 AM
. * * Re: It Shifts Left Shawn W.   Thu Sep 02 2004 06:49 AM

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