WHATS YOUR OPINION OF THIS? Recent Recon reports show that Ivan has increased in intensity, cat5 with winds of 165. Wow. This thing is a monster. 913mb Pressure, crazy.
Models have completely shifted west. And I mean like Panhandle style, and all the models. None of them take Ivan over the peninsula anymore. Interesting. I'm not going to buy that quite yet. Overnight Ivan made quite a jog, or leap, to the west. Spared Jamaica and I believe this impacted the models too much, as well as other factors. Since then the hurricane has already tracked slightly north of the forecasted track. I note however, looking at the latest loops that another westward wobble is in the works. The more it goes west, the more time it has over water, the more difficult the forecast will be because of the future NNE movement of the system.
Ivan will still impact the west coast of Florida in my opinion. Once it starts turning north it wont stop. Eventually NNE and NE. In the NHC official forecast they have it recurving to the NE later in the period. It will do this sooner than what they say.
As you can see the trough is in the Midwest and heading east. This will give Ivan the nudge north and eventually NNE. The high has stopped progreessing West and the ULL has not. This wil weaken the ridge further and allow Ivan a more northerly course as well. It's just a matter of time. I know it's going west, thats great for now. But looks are decieving. It will turn. Forecasting a cat5 hurricane is pretty hard. They tend to create their own environments and go where ever they want. That rail on the left side of Charley is coming down from the midwest (trough). The High on right of Charley will weaken. Again, just a matter of time. Once this thing starts turning I believe we'll see the models fly back over to the right. When it turns I believe it will be a pretty sharp turn not a gradual one like the NHC forecasts. I also disagree with the due north movement the NHC forecasts. It would take on hell of a ridge to Ivan's east to keep him on that path. Yes there is a new ridge in the Gulf, it will not build in to a strong one. The models, now that there is a ridge there, forecast it to be there, hence move the hurricane more west. That will not happen. High will weaken.
Intensity? Who cares it's already a cat5! Landfall in the US I will still stick with my mid cat3. Lets hope that shear is there in the Gulf.
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