The NHC track has been east/right of the "model consensus" now for the last day or so, according to the NHC. They have their reasons for doing this, some are explained in the discussion. My take on it is that they are not so sure that after looking at what is and has happened with this storm, that the models have it exactly right. Also they always work with averages (which is a very good thing) and don't make major changes to the official track because a couple of models swing one way or the other. But, bottom line and I quote from the 11PM discussion:
BEAR IN MIND THAT 3-4 DAY FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM EXACT...SO THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.
It is too early to tell where Ivan will end up, or even how strong Ivan will be when it gets where it is going.
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