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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Jeanne
      Tue Sep 14 2004 09:17 PM

First, let's look at Jeanne (Ivan in the next post). I've been eating crow here at FSU with this one -- I didn't figure this would have a shot, but it's defied my predictions. That said, it's got some landmasses in its way, including the Dominican. It is looking rather well organized tonight and might become a hurricane in the next day or so if it can miss Puerto Rico and the Dominican.

Track -- unless a trough well to the north of Bermuda continues to dive, it won't pick up Jeanne. All it may do is weaken the steering currents a bit, but that's not even a given. In the short term, Jeanne should continue moving just north of due west around the subtropical ridge. On this course, it might just nick the SW tip of Puerto Rico (thanks ShaggyDude!) and will likely pass over the island of Hispaniola, if only on the north side.

The ultimate track will be the key to the storm's survival, as though I don't see shear increasing too much, the favorable upper-level diffluence will likely weaken just a tad and the wind field with the system is small and tight. If it gets disrupted by the mountains of Hispaniola, it might sound a death knell for this storm -- or at least substantially weaken it -- which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Afterward, the storm should continue moving in a general WNW fashion to the central Bahamas in about 4-5 days, where it should be near the end of the subtropical ridge. Problem is, there really won't be a trough to pick it up. Ivan looks to stall out over the central Applachians and create sort of a blocking effect -- a Rex block -- where it sits below a high and disrupts the overall steering flow. Troughs can lift up and around the block, but Jeanne will be too far south in all likelihood to feel these effects. A slow, gradual WNW movement beyond 4-5 days can be expected, not unlike Frances.

The saving grace for Florida might be Ivan, as ultimately it should begin to move out to sea in 6-7 days. The trough it leaves behind in its wake as it transitions into an extratropical system (assuming, of course, it doesn't completely die out over the mountains) might be enough to swing and pick up Jeanne, sending it to the north. With the slow forward motion expected at that time, it could be enough to spare the entire United States. However, it is way too early to make that call and right now, at 6/7 days out, it's 50/50 for either scenario. People from Cape Hatteras south to Key West need to watch this one.

Intensity should be held somewhat in check by the small wind field interacting with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas, though the storm should reach hurricane intensity in the next day or so before then. It will have a chance at regaining some strength after leaving Hispaniola, but as it moves further into the Bahamas, cold upwelling from Frances combined with shallow waters (not as much energy) should keep intensification in check.

As an aside, the storms we have had near shore this year should help to keep anything else on the horizon from affecting the mainland with as much force just due to coastal upwelling of shallow waters, at least in the next few weeks. I don't want to sound the bell for the season after Ivan and Jeanne for the U.S., but the peak is behind us and there is only so many storms that the basin can handle in the same location. The chances after these storms of a significant U.S. impact dwindle pretty greatly -- but do *not* go away -- once they get out of the way. That doesn't diminish in any way what they have done, however.

1 day position: along the southern coast of Puerto Rico near 18.5N and 66-66.5W, 65-70kt hurricane
3 day position: just north of Hispaniola near 20N 71W 50-55kt tropical storm
5 day position: central Bahamas near 23N 75W 60kt tropical storm.
This isn't too far off of the NHC position and intensity, except a bit further south and a tad slower at days 4 and 5 and weaker due to interaction with landmasses.

Ivan coming up...

--------------------
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(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

Edited by Clark (Tue Sep 14 2004 09:24 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 14 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Note on Ivan Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Radar from Tampa clyde w.   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Radar from Tampa Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:18 PM
. * * Ivan - Doppler Radar Fixes berrywr   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico alliecat   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ALLIECAT   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 PM
. * * Evacuation Terra   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico alliecat   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ShaggyDude   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico OZ IN FL   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Shades of Opal... Mongo   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico troy   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico OZ IN FL   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:35 PM
. * * First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:56 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:19 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map belleami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:28 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Bruce   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:02 PM
. * * New Orleans? SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico spook   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico spook   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Robin   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:11 PM
. * * Here we go again! SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ShaggyDude   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:41 PM
. * * jeanne too...to FL and Puerto Rico LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Buoy action picking up Mozart   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Jeanne Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:20 PM
. * * I need to vent a little.... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:35 PM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: IVAN Rad   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Ivan Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:32 PM
. * * Prayer Sadie   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Historic event? Tropics Guy   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Beach   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Buoy Data - Ivan berrywr   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Buoy Data - Ivan Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:05 PM
. * * Recon reports mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Odds and Ends Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Recon reports Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Recon reports Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:44 PM
. * * HELLO!!! SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! k___g   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:53 PM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! sullynole   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:52 PM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:59 PM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:53 PM
. * * Winds SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Winds MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Winds Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Winds dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Frank P   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions spook   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:55 PM
. * * New Advisory is Out - Pressure Rising Kdubs   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Sorry - Here's the discussion too *DELETED* Kdubs   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:51 PM
. * * My thoughts for the day Kdubs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Situation in New Orleans N.O. Lurker   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:59 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:06 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day spook   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Girlnascar   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day RevUp   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:26 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:06 PM
. * * Re: buoy 42003 sullynole   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Kdubs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Girlnascar   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon reports Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:41 PM
. * * ReI'sa Ready I hope javlin   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:29 PM
. * * CAT 5? SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up clueless   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:34 PM
. * * Thank you redbird LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Winds... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up palmetto   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up BillD   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:42 PM
. * * Where........... FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Where........... andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Rubber Ducky   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Where........... mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Where........... gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Where........... andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Where........... gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Where........... belleami   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Where........... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Where........... dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:27 PM
. * * explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:32 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Bruce   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:13 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:16 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil anonymous   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:14 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Where........... mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lcdrgas   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Where........... J Mark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:36 PM
. * * A little OT -- but applies to evac areas... Allison   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Where........... MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Where........... SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Where........... danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:52 PM
. * * GO NOW! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:15 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:16 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:55 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! J Mark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Hookd   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:13 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:26 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:07 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Where? Maybe Pass Christian LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:44 PM
. * * convince me to leave as well Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Where........... SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Where........... HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Where........... CentralFlorida   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:00 PM
. * * One thing to watch.... wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: One thing to watch.... ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Got it LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Got it MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Thomas Email WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Where........... No More Than Me   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:29 PM

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