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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Ivan
      Tue Sep 14 2004 09:47 PM

And now Ivan...well, what can one say about this storm? I know for one that it has pretty much cracked the Dvorak intensity scale -- not once during the regularly scheduled updates has it had a T-number higher than 6.5 (127kt/935mb), and only on a couple of occasions did it reach T7.0 (140kt/921mb) on intermediate advisories. Just goes to show you how beneficial recon can be, despite the high costs involved (into the millions of dollars).

Ivan has continued to move generally in a NNW fashion today. Most of the motion continues to be northerly, though every so often the eye jogs to the west, often times in wobbles at it tries to reform and consolidate. The storm is roughly due south of Pensacola right now along 87W.

Right now, Ivan is starting to look a bit more asymmetric as some drier air begins to infiltrate the SW side of the storm (thanks to sullynole for the heads-up on this one). The dry air is a remnant of the trough now up by Ohio that dove down to the northern Gulf last night; it has taken time to rotate around the circulation of the storm, but it is slowly but surely infiltrating the circulation. Outer bands are beginning to impact the Florida peninsula and big bend, while the outflow from the storm reaches far up the Atlantic seaboard.

Te shortwave trough over the SE US last night lifted faster than expected, but was enough to begin to turn the storm. However, it is not enough to lift it to the shore or turn it eastward, contrary to my previous thinking. The ridge located over Texas and Oklahoma, while small in nature, is beginning to build northeastward. If it builds faster than Ivan moves, it could result in a storm that stalls out much sooner than expected -- perhaps even over the Gulf. I don't anticipate that, but it would be a disaster scenario for the New Orleans-Panama City area if so. Instead, a slower forward speed to landfall, which is still roughly 42-48 hours away I believe, is more likely.

With the change in prognostic reasoning, a change in the landfall region is necessary. The area most under the gun from a direct landfall is from Mobile eastward to Destin, in fair agreement with (if a bit east of) the NHC path. It must be noted, however, that the wind field with this storm is so large -- along the north side, the tropical storm wind field extends 235 miles to the west and 265 miles to the east -- that areas well away from the exact landfall point will receive high winds and have the potential for damage. It is feasible that much of the hurricane warning area will receive hurricane force winds, at least in gusts, with this storm. If it can be surmised, the tropical storm wind field is a bit bigger with this storm than with Frances, and we all saw what happened as it moved inland.

Assuming a landfall point near Pensacola for a moment, tropical storm force winds would affect the region from Baton Rouge, LA to just east of Perry, FL, while hurricane force winds would affect the region from Biloxi, MS to Panama City, FL. In addition, rains along the path of this storm, especially to the east of a line from Mobile, AL to Chattanooga, TN, are going to be locally heavy. Beyond landfall, rains in the central Appalachians -- already devestated by Frances -- are going to just add to the problems for residents of North Carolina and the Virginias.

Intensity -- see no reason to substantially deviate from the NHC intensity forecast except to knock it down a tad. While the pressure is remaining steady around 930mb for the time being, the eyewall is in a constant state of flux, there is greater shear ahead (if only a little bit more before it hits land), dry air is about to infiltrate the storm (if it hasn't done so already, considering the open W-SE eyewall), and the height of the 700mb surface continues to rise, now over 2500m. A reduction of about 10kt in the NHC forecasted intensities is what I feel the most likely forecast, but the course of least regret is to prepare for a high end category 4 hurricane and hope for the best. Better safe than sorry.

I hope everyone in the projected landfall swath of the NHC has made all necessary preparations, including those well inland of the system. Tropical storm force winds will begin to impact the coast tomorrow and it will be downhill from there. Best of luck to everyone and, unless things change, I think I'm going to focus on Jeanne for now...things seem to have come into better agreement tonight, the models (trending eastward) and the observations (trending westward) included.

And time to eat a bit of crow on this one...though for folks around these parts (Tallahassee), one only needs to remember what Kate did despite relatively low winds (max wind < 70mph in Tallahassee) to see what this storm may still cause well inland and well away from the center of the storm.

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* Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator Tue Sep 14 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Note on Ivan Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Radar from Tampa clyde w.   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Radar from Tampa Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:18 PM
. * * Ivan - Doppler Radar Fixes berrywr   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico alliecat   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ALLIECAT   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 PM
. * * Evacuation Terra   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico alliecat   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ShaggyDude   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico OZ IN FL   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:30 PM
. * * Shades of Opal... Mongo   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico troy   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico OZ IN FL   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:35 PM
. * * First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:56 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:15 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:32 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:19 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map tenavilla   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:20 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map belleami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:28 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Bruce   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:34 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:01 PM
. * * Re: First Ivan Wind Field map dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:02 PM
. * * New Orleans? SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico spook   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico spook   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico Robin   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:11 PM
. * * Here we go again! SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico ShaggyDude   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:41 PM
. * * jeanne too...to FL and Puerto Rico LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:24 PM
. * * Buoy action picking up Mozart   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Thunder   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:36 PM
. * * Jeanne Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Rasvar   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:20 PM
. * * I need to vent a little.... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:35 PM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:40 PM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Re: I need to vent a little.... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: IVAN Rad   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:27 PM
. * * Ivan Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:47 PM
. * * Re: Ivan Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Jeanne SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:32 PM
. * * Prayer Sadie   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Historic event? Tropics Guy   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Beach   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:19 PM
. * * Buoy Data - Ivan berrywr   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Buoy Data - Ivan Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:05 PM
. * * Recon reports mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:37 PM
. * * Odds and Ends Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Recon reports Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Recon reports Storm Cooper   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:44 PM
. * * HELLO!!! SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:51 PM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! k___g   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:53 PM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! sullynole   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:52 PM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:59 PM
. * * Re: HELLO!!! MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:53 PM
. * * Winds SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Winds MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Winds Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Winds dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 PM
. * * Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Frank P   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Kent   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions spook   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:55 PM
. * * New Advisory is Out - Pressure Rising Kdubs   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:50 PM
. * * Sorry - Here's the discussion too *DELETED* Kdubs   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:51 PM
. * * My thoughts for the day Kdubs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Situation in New Orleans N.O. Lurker   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:59 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:06 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day spook   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Girlnascar   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:29 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:24 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day RevUp   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:26 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:22 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:19 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:06 PM
. * * Re: buoy 42003 sullynole   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 PM
. * * Re: My thoughts for the day Kdubs   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too StormHound   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions Girlnascar   Tue Sep 14 2004 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon reports Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:41 PM
. * * ReI'sa Ready I hope javlin   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:29 PM
. * * CAT 5? SoonerShawn   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up clueless   Tue Sep 14 2004 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:34 PM
. * * Thank you redbird LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Elaine H   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:56 PM
. * * Winds... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up palmetto   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up BillD   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Buoy action picking up MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:42 PM
. * * Where........... FireAng85   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Colleen A.   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Where........... andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Rubber Ducky   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Where........... mud1967   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Where........... gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Where........... andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Where........... gonyen   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Where........... belleami   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Where........... MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Steve   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Where........... dani   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Bioman   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:27 PM
. * * explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:32 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:38 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:58 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Bruce   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:13 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:16 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil anonymous   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:05 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil Lisa NC   Tue Sep 14 2004 08:14 PM
. * * Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Where........... mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lcdrgas   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:17 PM
. * * Re: Where........... J Mark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Justin in Miami   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:36 PM
. * * A little OT -- but applies to evac areas... Allison   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Where........... MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Where........... SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Where........... danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Where........... lilyv   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:52 PM
. * * GO NOW! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:01 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! andy1tom   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:15 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:16 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:10 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Redbird   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:55 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! J Mark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Hookd   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! Clark   Tue Sep 14 2004 10:48 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:13 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! richisurfs   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:26 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:07 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! mbfly   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:47 PM
. * * Re: GO NOW! jth off   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Where? Maybe Pass Christian LoisCane   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:44 PM
. * * convince me to leave as well Wxwatcher2   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Where........... SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Where........... HCW   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Where........... CentralFlorida   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Where........... LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 06:00 PM
. * * One thing to watch.... wxman007   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Re: One thing to watch.... ShanaTX   Tue Sep 14 2004 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Got it LI Phil   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Got it MrSpock   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:39 PM
. * * Thomas Email WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:48 PM
. * * Re: Where........... Keith234   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Where........... No More Than Me   Tue Sep 14 2004 05:29 PM

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