Actually Accuweather (or at least Bastardi) was right all along. He said last week that Ivan's threat was to the western edge of guidance from the Mouth to Apalachacola. It was all posted here and can be reviewed. Bastardi said he thought it would get to 88 or 89 (small chance for 90). Ivan is currently at 88W and if it can squeeze any more western component with the 350 heading, it could get over as far as 88.3 (18ish miles farther west). Extreme case now would be 88.7ish. Everyone else was wrong - from the NHC to most of the best forecasters on CFHC and S2k that I turn to for guidance. I got lucky with this one. I had a Moss Point to Seaside hit from last Wed or Thurs. I liked it at weak Cat 4 or strong Cat 3. Sometimes we hit, sometimes we miss. But here's where I don't have a clue - What happens over the next week wtih Jeanne and with Ivan? There are a plethora of models disagreeing on what's going to happen. Does Ivan sit for 2-5 days in the Southern Appilachains? Bastardi seems to think 'epic' flooding of up to 2 feet in some areas. That's insane. Those areas have been inundated this year which is all verified by the Drought Index (currently not showing any yellows, browns or reds east of the MS).
Some of the models return Ivan to the Gulf of Mexico as a closed area of circulation. Compounding everything is Jeanne's anticipated western bend later in her forecast. She looks like she's getting formidable on Puerto Rico Radar Hopefully Luis is fairing well (appears to be a flood threat).
So some of the models see development off the Carolinas and FL/Gulf. Which one is Jeanne and which one is Ivan or is there a homebrew pending if Ivan cuts up much farther west (say toward the Great Lakes?). In the Wake of Ivan's landfall, there will be plenty to sort out. Looks like another interesting week in the tropics. Good luck and prayers to all.
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