Sorry Scott . I had it Moss Point to Seaside (remember, I try to use more obscure cities than everyone else does). When the TPC had a Big Bend hit, I noted the compromise was Blue Mt. Beach to Seaside, but I never called for that. The same post said:
I had it from Moss Point to Seaside. When the models clustered around Port Charlotte again yesterday, I presented it. But I'm sticking with what I went with to begin with even if I end up too far west.
Here's the call from Thursday:
In my world, I'm not thinking of Ivan as a direct threat to New Orleans. However, many locals will recall recent hurricanes that went in east of here (Opal in 1995 and Georges in 1998) and their impacts on the city. In the case of Opal, we had 40+mph winds coming right off of Lake Pontchartrain as the center moved inland in WFL. We got a very dry flow from the storm. Georges was much closer (landfall near Pascagoula/Moss Point) and the majority of fishing camps on the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain were destroyed (along with Brunnings Seafood Restaurant). Camps in the Rigolets also sustained heavy damage. I've got a feeling that if Ivan does indeed pass south of Jamaica, it's probably headed for a MS/AL/Escambia Co., FL landfall. It's far too early to say at what strength it will hit because 1) we don't know what interactions with land await, and 2) most Cat 5's can't maintain quite that intensity level for any lengthy duration of time (5 days). But if nothing else, it appears that our 4th landfalling US hurricane of the year is almost inevitable as well as our 3rd Gulf landfall and possibly 4th FL landfall of the season is in the offing. While no one is out of the woods yet, for anyone east of New Orleans, and Slidell to Panama City specifically, I'd be making my preparations before the crunch on Saturday and Sunday. If the CMC verifies (allegedly the best performing model on this storm so far, and the 12z likes an AL/FL solution), then you eastern Gulf Coast residents and business owners are in for trouble.
It was posted on another board. But I'm taking my props and dishing you a few as well. Good job.
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