Yes, Jeanne will decide where she wants to go. Until then, we have some incredible tools and guidance at our disposal to help anticipate her most likely path and intensity range. As NHC points out, intensity is probably the most difficult aspect of these storms to forecast with great accuracy. Combine that with a storm expected to recurve to the north and east, and you have a real challenge. Based on current guidance, which has become increasingly consistent in exposing a northward weakness by early Sunday morning, I expect Jeanne to hug the east coast from Palm Beach northward.
As with most hurricanes scraping the coast, it is the coastal areas which have to be most prepared for some storm surge flooding (esp. forward right quadrant), but only briefly from Palm Beach to Daytona Beach, then offshore. Jeanne (possibly reaching cat 3 strength) will most likely affect coastal areas with cat 2 winds (96-110 mph) initially, dropping to cat 1 (74-95 mph) north of Daytona Beach. Based on the current forecast, damaging wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are possible up to 50 miles inland to the left of the actual storm track. Trees, mobile homes, and suspended objects are most susceptible to being damaged and causing injury and damage to nearby structures.
(I second the applause for Skeetobite's maps!)
“Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.”
-------------------- "Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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