Quote: Yes, Jeanne will decide where she wants to go. Until then, we have some incredible tools and guidance at our disposal to help anticipate her most likely path and intensity range.
Oh, I absolutely agree, without reservation I agree the tools are great and are a real help in making good forecasts.
My post(s) are meant to remind us that as good as they are, we shouldn't worship a particular tool, a particular model because it 'misses my house by the most so now I won't get the storm' and similar reasoning. It is like saying 'I just bought this neaty keen wrench, now my car will run perfectly forever.'
You appear to be quite literate with the use of the various tools and make accurate observations and seem to make good conclusions. Many of the 'lurkers' and members of this board do not, and can not. Not because of a lack of IQ, but because their education and experience lie in different areas. Often, they do NOT realize that models are only one tool, are often wrong and change in a heartbeat.
My goal in posting is to encourage them to question the "why?' and ask 'What else should I know?' when they see the models and forecasts. Your accurate observations and conclusions complement my and other posts and help us see the big picture more clearly. Keep doing it. It is important!
A forecast is NOT a promise!
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 65448
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center