Quote: just a comment.. i do understand how it works and it is worth a raised eyebrow no matter how you mathematically explain it
You got that right! It isn't saying one point is more likely to be the landfall point, just that at the moment, it is more likely to be some absolute distance from the listed point. A storm, moving north might be closer to Miami at one point than say Ft Pierce, but it isn't saying Miami will be the landfall, just closer at some point in time to the current storm. Ft Pierce would still get the slam bam thankyou maam.
The raised eyebrow is the best reaction to the NHC probabilities forecasts...If it makes you look and get more data, then its done its job. Good observation IHMO
A forecast is NOT a promise!
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 66545
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center