remember that the NHC changes their tracks every 6hrs. Alot of mets change theirs the same from each leadforcaster in the NWS offices. They also coordinate at times with other citys NWS locations. That helps alot to get on the same page. JB tries to stick on a certain path but he does have the right to change his paths I feel every 12-24 hrs. I post mine up to 3 days out and my path is a very narrow 50-100 mile swath while JB usually does up to 200 miles and the NHC does around the same for a 3 day period. Should I change my track then every 12 hrs? Yeah I should but right now I dont feel I need to change it. I might though later this evening if I feel necessary. I do believe ANY FORECASTER needs to give the public 24hrs notice on a good 50 mile area landfall and that is just my opinion and that is very small area. They can go up to 100 if they feel needed. Reason the NHC or NWS dont like to say it will hit a certain area for sure is cause we dont want people to say " I thought you said 5 days ago it would hit in my town on my street at my address at my master bedroom location" Of course thats to the extreme and a joke but people do say things like that for forecasts more then 3 days out. Anyways thats why the NHC adjusts theirs tracks every 6 hrs in compliance to the data they recieve and the models. My 3 day forecasts are just best guesses. If they hold up then I did my best, if not, then what do people expect from 12x the amount of time I give out my landfall to the NHC. I always though post out a 24 hr landfall adjusted spot before landfall within 50 miles. That will come tonight if I feel I need to change it.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 106982
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center