I agree, Lois. The GFS and GFDL did a horrble job with Frances: they underdid the strength and position of the High and it looks to me as if they are doing it again with Jeanne. If I remember correctly,the UKMET and the NOGAPS pretty much nailed it.
Chief Met Tom Terry from Channel 9 in Orlando just said that if he had to place a dollar on which models to use, he would put his money on the UKMET and NOGAPS because the GFS/GFDL do not do well with upper air environments. Why the NHC puts so much credence in these two models baffles me, when UKMET and NOGAPS have been pretty consistent run to run. Go figure. Also....as you said, what we see with our own eyes is more informative than what the models "project". At least when we're looking with our own eyes, what we see is what we get. And I think we are getting Jeanne.
Just heard that mandatory evacuations for the barrier islands and manufactured/mobile homes in Brevard County will begin at 6:00am tomorrow morning. Also a curfew (didn't get the times) will begin tomorrow and alcohol sales will be stopped tomorrow also.
Here we go again.
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