Yes, the models have had numerous difficulties forecasting the strength and movement of the ridges this year. I remember watching the ridging to the north of Ivan building in very far south, farther than any of the models had it at that time, and thinking to myself that it probably wasn't going to take that NW/N turn until quite a bit later. The same was true with Frances. The ridge built in further south quicker than a lot of the models had anticipated and she never made it north of the Ft. Pierce area. It's definitely something that needs to be taken into consideration and watched closely. My other thought was with regard to the sharp north turn they have Jeanne making upon landfall. I could see that if there was a strong trough present, ala Charley, to pull her north then northeast. However, the ridge isn't really a square so once she reaches the "corner" she won't head due north. Instead she "feels" her way along the side of the ridge which is rounded, making her path more of an arc. However, like many have said it's best to not connect the dots so to speak, and to realize it's more of a cone than a straight line.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 64273
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center