I'm a newbie, but I've viewed the site through the last 3 canes..regarding the track, the most consistent model that I've seen the last 2-3 days is NOGAPS. It takes the track thru WPB up to Tampa and offshore in GOM to panhandle. The newest 12Z runs of the Canadian & UKMET (sorry folks I think the UKMET track is wrong on the SFWMD site), take a "Frances" path across the state. I. like others, have noted a right-of-track bias with the GFS & GFDL this season. The high is expansive centered near Norfolk, & reminds me of the Andrew pattern in '92. The trough over the upper Midwest is lifting into Canada so I just can't see this 90 deg turn north. But, heck, whatta I know.
Intensity - It looks as if the storm is getting its act together, right in time to hook up with 84F ocean water. If it wasn't for the dry air surrounding the storm, I'd say it could bomb to a CAT 4 b4 landfall. But with the dry air, maybe strong CAT 3. I think this storm will be stronger than Frances. 1) Frances was sheared significantly over the bahamas & never really got its act together prior to landfall (remember 60 nm eye), 2) no sign shear is forecast the next 36-48 hours for Jeanne,you've got an anticyclone over top doing some nice evacuation, & the gulf stream. Now one other factor, its the 3rd week of September and not late August, so maybe ocean temps have cooled slightly but there should be enuff juice for rapid intensification before landfall. It is a smaller size storm than Frances, but she'll be stronger. Hmmm, I'm ready for CROW pie.
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